Watford vs Middlesbrough — Championship
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Vicarage Road·Watford·England·22,200
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Watford and Middlesbrough meet in the Championship 2026 season on 7 November 2026. Watford have recorded 5 wins from 18 matches this season (28% win rate), averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 17% of games. Middlesbrough have won 50% of their 18 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 78%, Over 2.5 at 72%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.39 for Watford and 1.70 for Middlesbrough. The models give Watford a 27% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Middlesbrough win at 49%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 61%.
Season Statistics
Watford—
Middlesbrough21º
Position
1º
0.92
PPG
2.08
25%
Win %
58%
0.83
Goals / game
2.25
1.67
Conceded / game
1.42
50%
BTTS %
78%
17%
Clean sheet %
17%
50%
Over 2.5 %
72%
4.0
Avg corners
6.4
14.2
Avg shots
19.5
4.6
Avg shots on target
6.3
2.5
Avg yellow cards
1.1
10.9
Avg fouls
10.5
48.0%
Avg possession
57.5%
Home vs Away
Watford
Home (6)
—
Middlesbrough
Away (6)
1.67
PPG
1.83
50%
Win %
50%
1.33
Goals / game
2.17
1.50
Conceded / game
1.33
50%
BTTS %
78%
30%
Clean sheet %
11%
60%
Over 2.5 %
67%
4.0
Avg corners
6.4
14.2
Avg shots
19.5
4.6
Avg shots on target
6.3
2.5
Avg yellow cards
1.1
48.0%
Avg possession
57.5%
Goals Scored
| Watford | Home | Away | Middlesbrough | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 67% | 80% | 50% | 94% | 100% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 28% | 40% | 13% | 56% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 6% | 10% | 0% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Failed To Score | 33% | 20% | 50% | 6% | 0% | 11% |
Goals Conceded
| Watford | Home | Away | Middlesbrough | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 83% | 70% | 100% | 83% | 78% | 89% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 39% | 30% | 50% | 50% | 56% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 17% | 20% | 13% | 22% | 33% | 11% |
| Clean Sheets | 17% | 30% | 0% | 17% | 22% | 11% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Watford | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 56% |
| Over 4.5 | 11% | 22% |
| BTTS | 50% | 78% |
| BTTS & Win | 11% | 33% |
| BTTS & Draw | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 39% | 67% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 11% | 6% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Watford | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 11% | 41% |
| Draw 1st Half | 28% | 35% |
| Loss 1st Half | 61% | 24% |
| Scored 1st Half | 28% | 53% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 78% | 47% |
| Win 2nd Half | 22% | 53% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 61% | 18% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 17% | 29% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 71% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 39% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 89% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 35% |
Recent Venue Form
Watford (H)W
Charlton2–0
Charlton2–0L
Burnley0–4
Burnley0–4L
Stoke City1–2
Stoke City1–2W
Preston2–1
Preston2–1D
West Ham1–1
West Ham1–1L
Peterborough1–5
Peterborough1–5Middlesbrough (A)W
Bolton5–1
Bolton5–1WStoke City3–2
Stoke City3–2D
Birmingham2–2
Birmingham2–2L
Crystal Palace0–3
Crystal Palace0–3W
QPR1–0
QPR1–0DBurnley1–1
Burnley1–1Number of Corners
9.8
Corners / Match
14 games
League Avg
10.6
144 games
10.5
Corners / Match
15 games
| Match Corners | Watford | Middlesbrough | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 86% | 93% | 89% |
| Over 7 | 64% | 80% | 81% |
| Over 8 | 50% | 60% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 43% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 10 | 43% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 11 | 43% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Over 13 | 14% | 27% | 24% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.0 | 6.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.8 | 4.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 71% | 93% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 50% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 29% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 71% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 64% | 60% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 57% | 47% |
Head to Head · 20 matches
10
Watford
50%
4
Draws
20%
6
Middlesbrough
30%
70%
Over 1.5
14/20
50%
Over 2.5
10/20
20%
Over 3.5
4/20
55%
BTTS
11/20
25/04/26Watford
Middlesbrough
5–1Watford01/11/25Middlesbrough
Watford
3–0Middlesbrough15/02/25Watford
Middlesbrough
0–1Watford05/10/24Middlesbrough
Watford
2–1Middlesbrough04/05/24Watford
Middlesbrough
3–1Watford30/09/23Middlesbrough
Watford
2–3Middlesbrough28/01/23Watford
Middlesbrough
2–0Watford30/08/22Middlesbrough
Watford
2–1Middlesbrough05/04/21Watford
Middlesbrough
1–1Watford11/09/20Middlesbrough
Watford
1–0Middlesbrough14/01/17Middlesbrough
Watford
0–0Middlesbrough16/10/16Watford
Middlesbrough
0–1Watford06/04/15Middlesbrough
Watford
2–0Middlesbrough25/10/14Watford
Middlesbrough
1–1Watford15/02/14Middlesbrough
Watford
1–0Middlesbrough09/11/13Watford
Middlesbrough
2–2Watford12/01/13Watford
Middlesbrough
1–2Watford06/10/12Middlesbrough
Watford
1–2Middlesbrough28/04/12Middlesbrough
Watford
2–1Middlesbrough05/11/11Watford
Middlesbrough
1–0Watford| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +17 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |
Team Insights
Watford- ●Watford have lost their last 5 away matches.
- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Watford failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Watford have lost 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●80% of Watford's goals have been scored at home.
- ●91% of Watford's points have been earned at home.
- ●Watford have conceded 80% of their goals in the first half.
Middlesbrough- ●Middlesbrough have been undefeated in their last 10 matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in each of their last 12 matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have been undefeated in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Middlesbrough failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have won 3 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Middlesbrough have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
Season Schedule
WatfordLAWolves0–1
Wolves0–1WHCharlton2–0
Charlton2–0LACardiff1–5
Cardiff1–5LHBurnley0–4
Burnley0–4LABristol City0–1
Bristol City0–1LHStoke City1–2
Stoke City1–2–ANorwich31/10
Norwich31/10–HLincoln03/11
Lincoln03/11–HMiddlesbrough07/11
Middlesbrough07/11MiddlesbroughWABolton5–1
Bolton5–1DHCardiff2–2
Cardiff2–2WAStoke City3–2
Stoke City3–2WHWolves1–0
Wolves1–0DABirmingham2–2
Birmingham2–2DHMillwall2–2
Millwall2–2–HCharlton31/10
Charlton31/10–AWrexham04/11
Wrexham04/11–AWatford07/11
Watford07/11Top Scorers
WatfordA. Nabizada3 ⚽
L. Kjerrumgaard2 ⚽
M. Doumbia2 ⚽
Edo Kayembe1 ⚽
Jordan Zemura1 ⚽
I. Bravo1 ⚽
Middlesbroughwill lankshear7 ⚽
W. Lankshear6 ⚽
Amario Cozier-Duberry3 ⚽
Sebastian Berhalter2 ⚽
J. Sarmiento2 ⚽
L. Castledine2 ⚽
Cards Given
WatfordIker Bravo4 🟨
3 🟨
Amin Nabizada3 🟨
Edo Kayembe3 🟨
H. Kyprianou2 🟨
Hector Kyprianou2 🟨
Middlesbrough2 🟨
Neto Borges2 🟨
Riley McGree2 🟨
Sebastian Berhalter2 🟨
W. Lankshear2 🟨
A.Malanda2 🟨