Millwall vs Derby — Championship
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Millwall and Derby meet in the Championship 2026 season on 31 October 2026. Millwall have recorded 7 wins from 21 matches this season (33% win rate), averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 48% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 52%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Derby have won 16% of their 19 matches, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 63%, Over 2.5 at 53%, and clean sheets at 11%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.71 for Millwall and 1.34 for Derby. The models give Millwall a 50% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Derby win at 26%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 59% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Millwall—
Derby13º
Position
23º
1.25
PPG
0.58
33%
Win %
8%
1.58
Goals / game
0.83
1.67
Conceded / game
1.75
48%
BTTS %
63%
29%
Clean sheet %
11%
52%
Over 2.5 %
53%
4.9
Avg corners
5.5
12.6
Avg shots
12.2
3.7
Avg shots on target
3.8
1.9
Avg yellow cards
2.2
12.9
Avg fouls
12.8
48.5%
Avg possession
50.7%
Home vs Away
Millwall
Home (6)
—
Derby
Away (6)
1.33
PPG
0.83
33%
Win %
17%
1.83
Goals / game
1.00
1.33
Conceded / game
1.83
25%
BTTS %
64%
38%
Clean sheet %
18%
63%
Over 2.5 %
45%
4.9
Avg corners
5.5
12.6
Avg shots
12.2
3.7
Avg shots on target
3.8
1.9
Avg yellow cards
2.2
48.5%
Avg possession
50.7%
Goals Scored
| Millwall | Home | Away | Derby | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 76% | 63% | 85% | 74% | 63% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 33% | 50% | 23% | 21% | 13% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 10% | 25% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 9% |
| Failed To Score | 24% | 38% | 15% | 26% | 38% | 18% |
Goals Conceded
| Millwall | Home | Away | Derby | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 63% | 77% | 89% | 100% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 38% | 38% | 38% | 47% | 63% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 14% | 13% | 15% | 21% | 13% | 27% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 38% | 23% | 11% | 0% | 18% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Millwall | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 21% |
| Over 4.5 | 5% | 5% |
| BTTS | 48% | 63% |
| BTTS & Win | 5% | 5% |
| BTTS & Draw | 24% | 26% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 38% | 42% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 11% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Millwall | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 33% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 38% | 22% |
| Loss 1st Half | 29% | 44% |
| Scored 1st Half | 43% | 61% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 33% | 61% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 22% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 14% | 28% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 52% | 50% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 48% | 28% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 56% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 67% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 44% |
Recent Venue Form
Millwall (H)D
Lincoln2–2
Lincoln2–2L
Swansea0–1
Swansea0–1D
West Ham2–2
West Ham2–2L
Newcastle0–1
Newcastle0–1W
Bolton4–0
Bolton4–0L
Wrexham0–3
Wrexham0–3Derby (A)D
Sheffield Utd1–1
Sheffield Utd1–1L
QPR1–4
QPR1–4D
Burnley1–1
Burnley1–1LWest Ham0–3
West Ham0–3W
Portsmouth2–0
Portsmouth2–0L
Charlton1–2
Charlton1–2Number of Corners
11.4
Corners / Match
15 games
League Avg
10.6
144 games
11.1
Corners / Match
13 games
| Match Corners | Millwall | Derby | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 87% | 92% | 89% |
| Over 7 | 80% | 92% | 81% |
| Over 8 | 73% | 92% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 67% | 77% | 59% |
| Over 10 | 60% | 62% | 47% |
| Over 11 | 53% | 38% | 40% |
| Over 12 | 47% | 38% | 31% |
| Over 13 | 40% | 31% | 24% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Corners Against / Match | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 67% | 85% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 53% | 69% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 40% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 80% | 92% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 73% | 85% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 60% | 62% |
Head to Head · 22 matches
9
Millwall
41%
7
Draws
32%
6
Derby
27%
50%
Over 1.5
11/22
36%
Over 2.5
8/22
14%
Over 3.5
3/22
41%
BTTS
9/22
10/03/26Derby
Millwall
1–0Derby10/12/25Millwall
Derby
1–1Millwall22/02/25Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall19/10/24Derby
Millwall
1–1Derby23/02/22Millwall
Derby
1–2Millwall06/11/21Derby
Millwall
1–1Derby13/03/21Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall05/12/20Derby
Millwall
0–1Derby20/06/20Derby
Millwall
2–3Derby14/12/19Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall20/02/19Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall18/08/18Derby
Millwall
2–1Derby30/01/18Derby
Millwall
0–0Derby23/12/17Millwall
Derby
3–0Millwall25/04/15Derby
Millwall
3–3Derby04/10/14Millwall
Derby
0–0Millwall08/03/14Millwall
Derby
0–1Millwall14/09/13Derby
Millwall
1–5Derby04/05/13Millwall
Derby
1–0Millwall10/11/12Derby
Millwall
2–1Derby| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +17 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |
Team Insights
Millwall- ●Millwall have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Millwall have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Millwall failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Millwall have scored in 6 of their 6 away matches.
Derby- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 8 matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Derby have failed to win in their last 6 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Derby have lost 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●Derby failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●Derby have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●71% of Derby's points have been earned away.
- ●Derby have scored 60% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
MillwallLAPortsmouth1–2
Portsmouth1–2DHLincoln2–2
Lincoln2–2LHSwansea0–1
Swansea0–1WAPreston1–0
Preston1–0DHWest Ham2–2
West Ham2–2DAMiddlesbrough2–2
Middlesbrough2–2–HDerby31/10
Derby31/10–ABirmingham03/11
Birmingham03/11–AWest Brom07/11
West Brom07/11DerbyDASheffield Utd1–1
Sheffield Utd1–1LHStoke City0–1
Stoke City0–1LAQPR1–4
QPR1–4DHWrexham1–1
Wrexham1–1DABurnley1–1
Burnley1–1LHBirmingham1–2
Birmingham1–2–AMillwall31/10
Millwall31/10–HNorwich03/11
Norwich03/11–HBolton06/11
Bolton06/11Top Scorers
MillwallLyndon Dykes4 ⚽
T. Arconte3 ⚽
J. Cooper3 ⚽
Camiel Neghli3 ⚽
M. Sykes3 ⚽
J. Coburn2 ⚽
DerbyS. Szmodics4 ⚽
Bobby Clark2 ⚽
C. Morris2 ⚽
B. Clark2 ⚽
J. Ward1 ⚽
L. Salvesen1 ⚽
Cards Given
MillwallJenson Metcalfe4 🟨
Derek Mazou Sacko3 🟨
Zak Sturge3 🟨
Lyndon Dykes2 🟨
Kyrell Lisbie2 🟨
J. Metcalfe2 🟨
DerbyL. Travis3 🟨
D. Ozoh3 🟨
3 🟨
Dion Sanderson2 🟨
Alex Mowatt2 🟨
D. Sanderson2 🟨