Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League
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Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki meet in the J1 League 2027 season on 17 October 2026. Kashima have recorded 4 wins from 7 matches this season (57% win rate), averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 71% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. V-varen Nagasaki have won 29% of their 7 matches, with 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 57%, Over 2.5 at 71%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.84 for Kashima and 1.16 for V-varen Nagasaki. The models give Kashima a 57% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an V-varen Nagasaki win at 20%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 58%.
Season Statistics
Kashima—
V-varen Nagasaki8º
Position
14º
1.71
PPG
1.00
57%
Win %
29%
2.00
Goals / game
1.29
1.86
Conceded / game
2.00
71%
BTTS %
57%
14%
Clean sheet %
14%
71%
Over 2.5 %
71%
4.3
Avg corners
3.7
16.9
Avg shots
10.7
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.1
1.9
Avg yellow cards
1.3
10.0
Avg fouls
10.4
60.0%
Avg possession
43.1%
Home vs Away
Kashima
Home (3)
—
V-varen Nagasaki
Away (3)
2.00
PPG
0.00
67%
Win %
0%
1.67
Goals / game
1.00
1.33
Conceded / game
2.67
67%
BTTS %
67%
0%
Clean sheet %
0%
67%
Over 2.5 %
67%
4.3
Avg corners
3.7
16.9
Avg shots
10.7
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.1
1.9
Avg yellow cards
1.3
60.0%
Avg possession
43.1%
Goals Scored
| Kashima | Home | Away | V-varen Nagasaki | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 86% | 67% | 100% | 71% | 75% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 71% | 67% | 75% | 57% | 75% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 29% | 33% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 14% | 33% | 0% | 29% | 25% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Kashima | Home | Away | V-varen Nagasaki | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 100% | 75% | 86% | 75% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 57% | 33% | 75% | 57% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 0% | 50% | 43% | 25% | 67% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 0% | 25% | 14% | 25% | 0% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 14% |
| BTTS | 71% | 57% |
| BTTS & Win | 43% | 14% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 0% | 14% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 29% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 43% | 43% |
| Scored 1st Half | 57% | 29% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 43% |
| Win 2nd Half | 43% | 14% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 43% | 29% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 14% | 57% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 86% | 57% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 71% | 86% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 86% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 43% |
Recent Venue Form
Kashima (H)W
Newcastle Jets7–1
Newcastle Jets7–1L
Urawa0–1
Urawa0–1W
Suzuka Unlimited3–0
Suzuka Unlimited3–0W
Avispa Fukuoka3–2
Avispa Fukuoka3–2W
Nagoya Grampus2–1
Nagoya Grampus2–1W
Vegalta Sendai5–0
Vegalta Sendai5–0V-varen Nagasaki (A)W
Kochi United1–0
Kochi United1–0L
Vissel Kobe1–3
Vissel Kobe1–3L
Kashiwa Reysol2–4
Kashiwa Reysol2–4L
Fagiano Okayama0–1
Fagiano Okayama0–1L
Utrecht2–3
Utrecht2–3L
NEC Nijmegen1–3
NEC Nijmegen1–3Number of Corners
8.4
Corners / Match
7 games
League Avg
9.2
69 games
8.1
Corners / Match
7 games
| Match Corners | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 71% | 71% | 78% |
| Over 7 | 57% | 57% | 59% |
| Over 8 | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 9 | 29% | 57% | 42% |
| Over 10 | 14% | 14% | 32% |
| Over 11 | 14% | 0% | 25% |
| Over 12 | 14% | 0% | 17% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 86% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 57% | 43% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 29% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 57% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 57% | 71% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 43% | 43% |
Head to Head · 5 matches
5
Kashima
100%
0
Draws
0%
0
V-varen Nagasaki
0%
100%
Over 1.5
5/5
100%
Over 2.5
5/5
40%
Over 3.5
2/5
100%
BTTS
5/5
16/07/25V-varen Nagasaki
Kashima
2–1V-varen Nagasaki18/08/21V-varen Nagasaki
Kashima
3–1V-varen Nagasaki21/12/19V-varen Nagasaki
Kashima
3–2V-varen Nagasaki15/08/18Kashima
V-varen Nagasaki
1–2Kashima02/05/18V-varen Nagasaki
Kashima
2–1V-varen Nagasaki| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 16 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +13 | 14 |
| 5 |  FC Tokyo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Fagiano Okayama | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashima | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Cerezo Osaka | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 |  Mito Hollyhock | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Urawa | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 |  Gamba Osaka | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 |  Kyoto Sanga | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Team Insights
Kashima- ●Kashima have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Kashima have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Kashima have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●Kashima have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●64% of Kashima's goals have been scored away.
- ●69% of Kashima's goals conceded were conceded away.
V-varen Nagasaki- ●V-varen Nagasaki have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●67% of V-varen Nagasaki's goals have been scored at home.
- ●100% of V-varen Nagasaki's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
KashimaLAVissel Kobe1–2
Vissel Kobe1–2LHUrawa0–1
Urawa0–1LAMito Hollyhock2–4
Mito Hollyhock2–4WATokyo Verdy2–0
Tokyo Verdy2–0WHAvispa Fukuoka3–2
Avispa Fukuoka3–2WHNagoya Grampus2–1
Nagoya Grampus2–1–AKawasaki Frontale19/09
Kawasaki Frontale19/09–HGamba Osaka09/10
Gamba Osaka09/10–HV-varen Nagasaki17/10
V-varen Nagasaki17/10V-varen NagasakiWHNagoya Grampus2–0
Nagoya Grampus2–0LAVissel Kobe1–3
Vissel Kobe1–3DHGamba Osaka2–2
Gamba Osaka2–2LHFC Tokyo0–3
FC Tokyo0–3LAKashiwa Reysol2–4
Kashiwa Reysol2–4LAFagiano Okayama0–1
Fagiano Okayama0–1–HCerezo Osaka19/09
Cerezo Osaka19/09–AJEF United Chiba11/10
JEF United Chiba11/10–AKashima17/10
Kashima17/10Top Scorers
KashimaLeo Ceara6 ⚽
A. Cavric3 ⚽
Léo Ceará2 ⚽
Aleksandar Čavrić1 ⚽
V-varen NagasakiMatheus Jesus2 ⚽
Tenmu Matsumoto2 ⚽
Thiago2 ⚽
Iwasaki Yuto1 ⚽
Kenshin Yasuda1 ⚽
Thiago Santana1 ⚽
Cards Given
KashimaY. Suzuki2 🟨
Elber1 🟨
I. Sekigawa1 🟨
K. Misao1 🟨
Keisuke Tsukui1 🟨
Kento Misao1 🟨
V-varen NagasakiH. Onaga1 🟨
Hotaru Yamaguchi1 🟨
Kanta Doi1 🟨
Motoki Hasegawa1 🟨
N. Campbell1 🟨
Norman Campbell1 🟨