Marseille vs Toulouse — Ligue 1
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Stade Orange Vélodrome·Marseille·France·67,394
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Marseille and Toulouse meet in the Ligue 1 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Marseille have recorded 5 wins from 14 matches this season (36% win rate), averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Toulouse have won 27% of their 11 matches, with 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 73%, Over 2.5 at 73%, and clean sheets at 9%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.95 for Marseille and 1.73 for Toulouse. The models give Marseille a 45% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Toulouse win at 32%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 70% and BTTS at 70%.
Season Statistics
Marseille—
Toulouse10º
Position
12º
1.29
PPG
1.29
43%
Win %
29%
2.00
Goals / game
1.71
1.43
Conceded / game
1.57
50%
BTTS %
73%
14%
Clean sheet %
9%
64%
Over 2.5 %
73%
4.7
Avg corners
4.1
13.1
Avg shots
13.6
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.6
1.5
Avg yellow cards
1.6
11.1
Avg fouls
15.0
57.6%
Avg possession
50.0%
Home vs Away
Marseille
Home (3)
—
Toulouse
Away (4)
1.00
PPG
1.50
33%
Win %
25%
2.33
Goals / game
2.25
1.67
Conceded / game
1.50
63%
BTTS %
75%
13%
Clean sheet %
25%
88%
Over 2.5 %
100%
4.7
Avg corners
4.1
13.1
Avg shots
13.6
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.6
1.5
Avg yellow cards
1.6
57.6%
Avg possession
50.0%
Goals Scored
| Marseille | Home | Away | Toulouse | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 75% | 50% | 82% | 71% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 50% | 33% | 64% | 43% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 21% | 25% | 17% | 18% | 14% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 25% | 50% | 18% | 29% | 0% |
Goals Conceded
| Marseille | Home | Away | Toulouse | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 88% | 83% | 91% | 100% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 50% | 50% | 64% | 57% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 14% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 13% | 17% | 9% | 0% | 25% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 18% |
| BTTS | 50% | 73% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 18% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 36% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 64% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 14% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Loss 1st Half | 36% | 30% |
| Scored 1st Half | 43% | 30% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 71% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 36% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 21% | 30% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 43% | 30% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 60% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 40% |
Recent Venue Form
Marseille (H)L
Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
Olympiakos Piraeus0–1L
Paris Saint Germain1–2
Paris Saint Germain1–2L
Paris FC2–3
Paris FC2–3W
Strasbourg4–0
Strasbourg4–0L
Atletico Madrid1–2
Atletico Madrid1–2W
Athletic Club3–1
Athletic Club3–1Toulouse (A)W
Le Mans3–0
Le Mans3–0D
Monaco2–2
Monaco2–2D
Lorient2–2
Lorient2–2D
Stade Brestois 292–2
Stade Brestois 292–2WStrasbourg2–1
Strasbourg2–1L
Lens1–4
Lens1–4Number of Corners
8.4
Corners / Match
10 games
League Avg
9.2
65 games
8.4
Corners / Match
7 games
| Match Corners | Marseille | Toulouse | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 80% | 86% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 60% | 71% | 68% |
| Over 8 | 50% | 43% | 60% |
| Over 9 | 30% | 29% | 46% |
| Over 10 | 10% | 14% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 10% | 14% | 15% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 14% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 60% | 57% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 70% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 71% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 30% | 29% |
Head to Head · 32 matches
18
Marseille
56%
12
Draws
38%
2
Toulouse
6%
72%
Over 1.5
23/32
53%
Over 2.5
17/32
38%
Over 3.5
12/32
59%
BTTS
19/32
07/03/26Marseille
Toulouse
0–1Marseille04/03/26Toulouse
Marseille
2–2Toulouse29/11/25Toulouse
Marseille
2–2Toulouse06/04/25Toulouse
Marseille
3–2Toulouse31/08/24Marseille
Toulouse
1–3Marseille21/04/24Marseille
Toulouse
2–2Marseille17/09/23Toulouse
Marseille
0–0Toulouse19/02/23Marseille
Toulouse
2–3Marseille29/12/22Toulouse
Marseille
6–1Toulouse08/02/20Toulouse
Marseille
1–0Toulouse24/11/19Marseille
Toulouse
0–2Marseille18/05/19Marseille
Toulouse
2–5Marseille10/08/18Toulouse
Marseille
4–0Toulouse11/03/18Marseille
Toulouse
1–2Marseille24/09/17Toulouse
Marseille
2–0Toulouse09/04/17Marseille
Toulouse
0–0Marseille08/01/17Marseille
Toulouse
1–2Marseille14/08/16Toulouse
Marseille
0–0Toulouse06/03/16Toulouse
Marseille
1–1Toulouse13/01/16Marseille
Toulouse
2–1Marseille| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Team Insights
Marseille- ●Marseille have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Marseille have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Marseille's points have been earned away.
Toulouse- ●Toulouse have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Toulouse have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Toulouse have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Toulouse have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Toulouse have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●75% of Toulouse's goals have been scored away.
- ●67% of Toulouse's points have been earned away.
Season Schedule
MarseilleWAAngers5–2
Angers5–2WAEstac Troyes2–0
Estac Troyes2–0LHParis Saint Germain1–2
Paris Saint Germain1–2LARennes0–1
Rennes0–1LHParis FC2–3
Paris FC2–3LAMonaco0–2
Monaco0–2–HLe Havre25/10
Le Havre25/10–HToulouse01/11
Toulouse01/11–ALens08/11
Lens08/11ToulouseWALe Mans3–0
Le Mans3–0DAMonaco2–2
Monaco2–2WHLe Havre3–2
Le Havre3–2DALorient2–2
Lorient2–2LHLille0–1
Lille0–1DAStade Brestois 292–2
Stade Brestois 292–2–HEstac Troyes25/10
Estac Troyes25/10–AMarseille01/11
Marseille01/11–HStrasbourg06/11
Strasbourg06/11Top Scorers
MarseilleAmine Gouiri3 ⚽
I. Paixao3 ⚽
Himad Abdelli2 ⚽
A. Gouiri2 ⚽
Amine Harit2 ⚽
Angel Gomes1 ⚽
ToulouseCasper Tengstedt5 ⚽
S. Hidalgo2 ⚽
Thomas Jorgensen2 ⚽
J. Russell-Rowe1 ⚽
Aron Dønnum1 ⚽
Jacen Russell-Rowe1 ⚽
Cards Given
MarseilleAngel Gomes3 🟨
Timothy Weah3 🟨
Bamo Meite2 🟨
Amine Harit2 🟨
Keyliane Abdallah2 🟨
Himad Abdelli1 🟨
ToulouseC. Casseres2 🟨
N. Schmidt2 🟨
2 🟨
Jacen Russell-Rowe1 🟨
Sion Oppong1 🟨
Niko Sigur1 🟨