Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1
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Stadium de Toulouse·Toulouse·France·33,150
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Toulouse and Estac Troyes meet in the Ligue 1 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Toulouse have recorded 3 wins from 11 matches this season (27% win rate), averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 73% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 73%; and clean sheets in 9% of games. Estac Troyes have won 36% of their 14 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 57%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 21%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.42 for Toulouse and 1.30 for Estac Troyes. The models give Toulouse a 44% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Estac Troyes win at 30%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52% and BTTS at 56%.
Season Statistics
Toulouse—
Estac Troyes12º
Position
17º
1.29
PPG
0.57
29%
Win %
14%
1.71
Goals / game
0.71
1.57
Conceded / game
2.29
73%
BTTS %
57%
9%
Clean sheet %
21%
73%
Over 2.5 %
50%
4.1
Avg corners
7.0
13.6
Avg shots
14.1
4.6
Avg shots on target
3.1
1.6
Avg yellow cards
1.7
15.0
Avg fouls
11.9
50.0%
Avg possession
39.3%
Home vs Away
Toulouse
Home (3)
—
Estac Troyes
Away (3)
1.00
PPG
1.00
33%
Win %
33%
1.00
Goals / game
0.67
1.67
Conceded / game
1.67
71%
BTTS %
57%
0%
Clean sheet %
14%
57%
Over 2.5 %
57%
4.1
Avg corners
7.0
13.6
Avg shots
14.1
4.6
Avg shots on target
3.1
1.6
Avg yellow cards
1.7
50.0%
Avg possession
39.3%
Goals Scored
| Toulouse | Home | Away | Estac Troyes | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 82% | 71% | 100% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 64% | 43% | 100% | 43% | 29% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 18% | 14% | 25% | 21% | 14% | 29% |
| Failed To Score | 18% | 29% | 0% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
Goals Conceded
| Toulouse | Home | Away | Estac Troyes | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 91% | 100% | 75% | 79% | 71% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 64% | 57% | 75% | 50% | 57% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 9% | 14% | 0% | 14% | 29% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 9% | 0% | 25% | 21% | 29% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Toulouse | Estac Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 36% |
| Over 4.5 | 18% | 14% |
| BTTS | 73% | 57% |
| BTTS & Win | 18% | 21% |
| BTTS & Draw | 36% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 64% | 43% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 9% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Toulouse | Estac Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 20% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 29% |
| Loss 1st Half | 30% | 43% |
| Scored 1st Half | 30% | 43% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 40% | 36% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 30% | 21% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 30% | 43% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 60% | 64% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 60% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 40% | 43% |
Recent Venue Form
Toulouse (H)L
PAU2–3
PAU2–3W
Le Havre3–2
Le Havre3–2L
Lille0–1
Lille0–1L
Lyon0–2
Lyon0–2L
Hamburger SV1–2
Hamburger SV1–2W
Real Sociedad2–1
Real Sociedad2–1Estac Troyes (A)D
Dijon2–2
Dijon2–2L
Angers0–2
Angers0–2LLille0–2
Lille0–2W
Lorient2–1
Lorient2–1D
Auxerre1–1
Auxerre1–1W
Grenoble3–0
Grenoble3–0Number of Corners
8.4
Corners / Match
7 games
League Avg
9.2
65 games
8.9
Corners / Match
7 games
| Match Corners | Toulouse | Estac Troyes | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 86% | 86% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 71% | 57% | 68% |
| Over 8 | 43% | 57% | 60% |
| Over 9 | 29% | 43% | 46% |
| Over 10 | 14% | 29% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 14% | 14% | 15% |
| Over 12 | 14% | 14% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Toulouse | Estac Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.1 | 7.0 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 71% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 57% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 43% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 71% | 29% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 71% | 14% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 29% | 0% |
Head to Head · 11 matches
7
Toulouse
64%
4
Draws
36%
0
Estac Troyes
0%
64%
Over 1.5
7/11
45%
Over 2.5
5/11
27%
Over 3.5
3/11
36%
BTTS
4/11
01/02/23Estac Troyes
Toulouse
4–1Estac Troyes14/08/22Toulouse
Estac Troyes
0–3Toulouse09/07/22Estac Troyes
Toulouse
6–1Estac Troyes06/02/21Toulouse
Estac Troyes
1–1Toulouse03/10/20Estac Troyes
Toulouse
0–0Estac Troyes27/01/18Estac Troyes
Toulouse
1–0Estac Troyes09/09/17Toulouse
Estac Troyes
0–0Toulouse07/05/16Estac Troyes
Toulouse
1–0Estac Troyes02/12/15Toulouse
Estac Troyes
0–3Toulouse16/02/13Estac Troyes
Toulouse
2–2Estac Troyes29/09/12Toulouse
Estac Troyes
0–2Toulouse| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Team Insights
Toulouse- ●Toulouse have been undefeated in their last 4 matches.
- ●Toulouse have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- ●Toulouse have been undefeated in their last 4 away matches.
- ●Toulouse have scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●Toulouse have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
- ●75% of Toulouse's goals have been scored away.
- ●67% of Toulouse's points have been earned away.
Estac Troyes- ●Estac Troyes have failed to win in their last 5 matches.
- ●Estac Troyes have lost their last 5 matches.
- ●Estac Troyes failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Estac Troyes have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Estac Troyes have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Estac Troyes have lost their last 3 home matches.
- ●Estac Troyes have lost their last 2 away matches.
- ●69% of Estac Troyes's goals conceded were conceded at home.
Season Schedule
ToulouseWALe Mans3–0
Le Mans3–0DAMonaco2–2
Monaco2–2WHLe Havre3–2
Le Havre3–2DALorient2–2
Lorient2–2LHLille0–1
Lille0–1DAStade Brestois 292–2
Stade Brestois 292–2–HEstac Troyes25/10
Estac Troyes25/10–AMarseille01/11
Marseille01/11–HStrasbourg06/11
Strasbourg06/11Estac TroyesLHLens1–3
Lens1–3LHMarseille0–2
Marseille0–2LAAngers0–2
Angers0–2LALille0–2
Lille0–2LHStrasbourg2–6
Strasbourg2–6WALorient2–1
Lorient2–1–AToulouse25/10
Toulouse25/10–HLe Mans31/10
Le Mans31/10–AParis Saint Germain07/11
Paris Saint Germain07/11Top Scorers
ToulouseCasper Tengstedt5 ⚽
S. Hidalgo2 ⚽
Thomas Jorgensen2 ⚽
J. Russell-Rowe1 ⚽
Aron Dønnum1 ⚽
Jacen Russell-Rowe1 ⚽
Estac TroyesR. Ripart3 ⚽
Christ Batola1 ⚽
E. Carneiro1 ⚽
Jérémy Le Douaron1 ⚽
L. Maronnier1 ⚽
T. Nkada1 ⚽
Cards Given
ToulouseC. Casseres2 🟨
N. Schmidt2 🟨
2 🟨
Jacen Russell-Rowe1 🟨
Sion Oppong1 🟨
Niko Sigur1 🟨
Estac TroyesAntoine Mille2 🟨
Junior Diaz2 🟨
2 🟨
J. M. Diaz1 🟨
Renaud Ripart1 🟨
Lucas Maronnier1 🟨