Marseille vs Le Havre — Ligue 1
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Stade Orange Vélodrome·Marseille·France·67,394
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Marseille and Le Havre meet in the Ligue 1 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Marseille have recorded 5 wins from 14 matches this season (36% win rate), averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 64%; and clean sheets in 14% of games. Le Havre have won 21% of their 14 matches, with 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 14%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.96 for Marseille and 1.45 for Le Havre. The models give Marseille a 54% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Le Havre win at 23%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 64% and BTTS at 64%.
Season Statistics
Marseille—
Le Havre10º
Position
18º
1.29
PPG
0.29
43%
Win %
0%
2.00
Goals / game
0.71
1.43
Conceded / game
1.57
50%
BTTS %
64%
14%
Clean sheet %
14%
64%
Over 2.5 %
50%
4.7
Avg corners
5.7
13.1
Avg shots
15.6
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.7
1.5
Avg yellow cards
1.6
11.1
Avg fouls
14.6
57.6%
Avg possession
49.6%
Home vs Away
Marseille
Home (3)
—
Le Havre
Away (3)
1.00
PPG
0.33
33%
Win %
0%
2.33
Goals / game
1.00
1.67
Conceded / game
1.67
63%
BTTS %
50%
13%
Clean sheet %
17%
88%
Over 2.5 %
33%
4.7
Avg corners
5.7
13.1
Avg shots
15.6
4.4
Avg shots on target
4.7
1.5
Avg yellow cards
1.6
57.6%
Avg possession
49.6%
Goals Scored
| Marseille | Home | Away | Le Havre | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 64% | 75% | 50% | 71% | 75% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 43% | 50% | 33% | 29% | 25% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 21% | 25% | 17% | 7% | 13% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 36% | 25% | 50% | 29% | 25% | 33% |
Goals Conceded
| Marseille | Home | Away | Le Havre | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 86% | 88% | 83% | 86% | 88% | 83% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 50% | 50% | 50% | 36% | 38% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 21% | 25% | 17% | 21% | 13% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 14% | 13% | 17% | 14% | 13% | 17% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Marseille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 100% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 29% |
| Over 4.5 | 21% | 21% |
| BTTS | 50% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 14% |
| BTTS & Draw | 0% | 14% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 14% | 0% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Marseille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 14% | 21% |
| Draw 1st Half | 50% | 43% |
| Loss 1st Half | 36% | 36% |
| Scored 1st Half | 43% | 43% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 71% | 50% |
| Win 2nd Half | 36% | 7% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 21% | 64% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 43% | 29% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 50% | 43% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 57% | 57% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 50% | 29% |
Recent Venue Form
Marseille (H)L
Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
Olympiakos Piraeus0–1L
Paris Saint Germain1–2
Paris Saint Germain1–2L
Paris FC2–3
Paris FC2–3W
Strasbourg4–0
Strasbourg4–0L
Atletico Madrid1–2
Atletico Madrid1–2W
Athletic Club3–1
Athletic Club3–1Le Havre (A)L
Lille0–1
Lille0–1L
Toulouse2–3
Toulouse2–3D
Lyon1–1
Lyon1–1W
Le Mans1–0
Le Mans1–0L
Oviedo2–3
Oviedo2–3L
Ipswich0–1
Ipswich0–1Number of Corners
8.4
Corners / Match
10 games
League Avg
9.2
65 games
10.6
Corners / Match
7 games
| Match Corners | Marseille | Le Havre | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 80% | 100% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 60% | 100% | 68% |
| Over 8 | 50% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 9 | 30% | 86% | 46% |
| Over 10 | 10% | 43% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 10% | 14% | 15% |
| Over 12 | 0% | 14% | 11% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Marseille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.7 | 4.9 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 100% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 60% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 50% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 70% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 50% | 100% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 30% | 57% |
Head to Head · 7 matches
7
Marseille
100%
0
Draws
0%
0
Le Havre
0%
86%
Over 1.5
6/7
86%
Over 2.5
6/7
57%
Over 3.5
4/7
71%
BTTS
5/7
10/05/26Marseille
Le Havre
0–1Marseille18/10/25Le Havre
Marseille
6–2Le Havre10/05/25Marseille
Le Havre
1–3Marseille05/01/25Le Havre
Marseille
5–1Le Havre19/05/24Marseille
Le Havre
1–2Marseille08/10/23Le Havre
Marseille
3–0Le Havre22/01/12Le Havre
Marseille
3–1Le Havre| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Rennes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Nice | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Team Insights
Marseille- ●Marseille have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Marseille have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●67% of Marseille's points have been earned away.
Le Havre- ●Le Havre have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Le Havre have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Le Havre have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Le Havre have lost their last 2 away matches.
Season Schedule
MarseilleWAAngers5–2
Angers5–2WAEstac Troyes2–0
Estac Troyes2–0LHParis Saint Germain1–2
Paris Saint Germain1–2LARennes0–1
Rennes0–1LHParis FC2–3
Paris FC2–3LAMonaco0–2
Monaco0–2–HLe Havre25/10
Le Havre25/10–HToulouse01/11
Toulouse01/11–ALens08/11
Lens08/11Le HavreLHAuxerre1–3
Auxerre1–3LALille0–1
Lille0–1LAToulouse2–3
Toulouse2–3DHAngers0–0
Angers0–0LHStade Brestois 291–2
Stade Brestois 291–2DALyon1–1
Lyon1–1–AMarseille25/10
Marseille25/10–HParis Saint Germain30/10
Paris Saint Germain30/10–HLorient08/11
Lorient08/11Top Scorers
MarseilleAmine Gouiri3 ⚽
I. Paixao3 ⚽
Himad Abdelli2 ⚽
A. Gouiri2 ⚽
Amine Harit2 ⚽
Angel Gomes1 ⚽
Le HavreRayan Fofana2 ⚽
A. Samatta2 ⚽
Josh Maja1 ⚽
Marco Esteban1 ⚽
Mbwana Ally Samatta1 ⚽
R. Ndiaye1 ⚽
Cards Given
MarseilleAngel Gomes3 🟨
Timothy Weah3 🟨
Bamo Meite2 🟨
Amine Harit2 🟨
Keyliane Abdallah2 🟨
Himad Abdelli1 🟨
Le HavreF. Doucoure2 🟨
Ahmed Touba1 🟨
Ayumu Seko1 🟨
Didier Digard1 🟨
Djibril Ouziad1 🟨
A. Seko1 🟨