Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — Primera A
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Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas meet in the Primera A 2026 season on 12 November 2026. Atletico Nacional have recorded 31 wins from 48 matches this season (65% win rate), averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 46% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 63%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Once Caldas have won 38% of their 42 matches, with 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 64%, Over 2.5 at 40%, and clean sheets at 26%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.84 for Atletico Nacional and 0.94 for Once Caldas. The models give Atletico Nacional a 59% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an Once Caldas win at 17%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 51% and BTTS at 51%.
Season Statistics
Atletico Nacional—
Once Caldas1º
Position
5º
2.11
PPG
1.74
68%
Win %
42%
1.84
Goals / game
1.63
0.79
Conceded / game
1.16
46%
BTTS %
64%
33%
Clean sheet %
26%
63%
Over 2.5 %
40%
5.6
Avg corners
5.1
16.4
Avg shots
15.2
6.1
Avg shots on target
5.7
2.6
Avg yellow cards
2.6
11.7
Avg fouls
10.4
59.1%
Avg possession
53.6%
Home vs Away
Atletico Nacional
Home (9)
—
Once Caldas
Away (9)
2.78
PPG
1.33
89%
Win %
22%
2.44
Goals / game
1.22
0.33
Conceded / game
1.00
52%
BTTS %
68%
48%
Clean sheet %
23%
64%
Over 2.5 %
32%
5.6
Avg corners
5.1
16.4
Avg shots
15.2
6.1
Avg shots on target
5.7
2.6
Avg yellow cards
2.6
59.1%
Avg possession
53.6%
Goals Scored
| Atletico Nacional | Home | Away | Once Caldas | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 92% | 57% | 86% | 90% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 60% | 68% | 52% | 36% | 35% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 40% | 26% | 14% | 25% | 5% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 8% | 43% | 14% | 10% | 18% |
Goals Conceded
| Atletico Nacional | Home | Away | Once Caldas | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 52% | 83% | 74% | 70% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 21% | 16% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 4% | 13% | 5% | 10% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 48% | 17% | 26% | 30% | 23% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 95% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 19% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 10% |
| BTTS | 46% | 64% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 4% | 38% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 33% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 21% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 38% | 29% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 55% |
| Loss 1st Half | 21% | 17% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 50% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 43% |
| Win 2nd Half | 54% | 29% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 60% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 21% | 12% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 64% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 33% | 45% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 40% | 40% |
Recent Venue Form
Atletico Nacional (H)W
Deportivo Pasto3–0
Deportivo Pasto3–0W
Independiente Medellin3–2
Independiente Medellin3–2D
Deportes Tolima0–0
Deportes Tolima0–0W
Junior3–1
Junior3–1D
Chapecoense-sc1–1
Chapecoense-sc1–1D
Millonarios1–1
Millonarios1–1Once Caldas (A)DMillonarios1–1
Millonarios1–1WIndependiente Medellin2–0
Independiente Medellin2–0D
Internacional de Bogota1–1
Internacional de Bogota1–1LDeportivo Pasto0–1
Deportivo Pasto0–1L
Chico0–2
Chico0–2W
Fortaleza FC2–1
Fortaleza FC2–1Number of Corners
9.5
Corners / Match
40 games
League Avg
9.0
344 games
9.3
Corners / Match
36 games
| Match Corners | Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 85% | 78% | 76% |
| Over 7 | 75% | 69% | 68% |
| Over 8 | 65% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 9 | 55% | 36% | 41% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 31% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 23% | 28% | 22% |
| Over 12 | 13% | 19% | 12% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 14% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 93% | 83% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 70% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 53% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 53% | 64% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 40% | 42% |
Head to Head · 26 matches
16
Atletico Nacional
62%
5
Draws
19%
5
Once Caldas
19%
54%
Over 1.5
14/26
27%
Over 2.5
7/26
8%
Over 3.5
2/26
23%
BTTS
6/26
01/05/26Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–0Atletico Nacional22/10/25Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
2–0Once Caldas10/10/25Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
0–1Atletico Nacional12/07/25Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–3Atletico Nacional19/06/25Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–2Atletico Nacional02/06/25Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
0–0Once Caldas26/01/25Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
4–0Once Caldas27/07/24Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
2–0Atletico Nacional01/02/24Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
1–1Once Caldas17/07/23Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–1Atletico Nacional27/01/23Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
1–0Once Caldas14/10/22Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–0Atletico Nacional11/05/22Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–2Atletico Nacional23/04/22Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
0–0Once Caldas21/04/22Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
3–0Once Caldas28/10/21Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
2–0Once Caldas17/02/21Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
0–1Atletico Nacional26/09/20Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
2–0Atletico Nacional14/07/19Atletico Nacional
Once Caldas
1–2Atletico Nacional26/01/19Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
0–0Once Caldas| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | +28 | 55 |
| 2 | Junior | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | +9 | 44 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | +11 | 40 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | +8 | 37 |
| 5 |  Santa Fe | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | +11 | 35 |
| 6 | Once Caldas | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportivo Pasto | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Cali | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | +6 | 30 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellin | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +3 | 29 |
| 10 | Internacional de Bogota | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Millonarios | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 12 |  Bucaramanga | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +7 | 26 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | -2 | 25 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -15 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -18 | 10 |
Team Insights
Atletico Nacional- ●Atletico Nacional have been undefeated in their last 18 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have scored in 16 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 of their 21 away matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have won 12 of their 21 away matches.
- ●76% of Atletico Nacional's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Atletico Nacional have conceded 64% of their goals in the first half.
Once Caldas- ●Once Caldas have been undefeated in their last 5 matches.
- ●Once Caldas have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Once Caldas have scored in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Once Caldas have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Once Caldas failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Once Caldas have scored in 16 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Once Caldas failed to keep a clean sheet in 16 of their 19 away matches.
- ●Once Caldas have scored in 16 of their 19 away matches.
Season Schedule
Atletico NacionalWHDeportivo Pasto3–0
Deportivo Pasto3–0LACucuta0–1
Cucuta0–1WAChico4–1
Chico4–1DHDeportes Tolima0–0
Deportes Tolima0–0WHJunior3–1
Junior3–1DHMillonarios1–1
Millonarios1–1–HIndependiente Medellin25/10
Independiente Medellin25/10–HSanta Fe30/10
Santa Fe30/10–ABucaramanga03/11
Bucaramanga03/11Once CaldasDHDeportivo Pereira1–1
Deportivo Pereira1–1DAMillonarios1–1
Millonarios1–1WAIndependiente Medellin2–0
Independiente Medellin2–0WHLlaneros1–0
Llaneros1–0DAInternacional de Bogota1–1
Internacional de Bogota1–1LHBucaramanga1–3
Bucaramanga1–3–HAlianza Valledupar28/10
Alianza Valledupar28/10–HÁguilas Doradas07/11
Águilas Doradas07/11–AAtletico Nacional12/11
Atletico Nacional12/11Top Scorers
Atletico NacionalA. Morelos17 ⚽
J. Rengifo9 ⚽
M. Moreno8 ⚽
A. Sarmiento7 ⚽
E. Cardona6 ⚽
Andrés Sarmiento3 ⚽
Once CaldasD. Moreno14 ⚽
J. A. Zapata Ramirez11 ⚽
P. Gomez4 ⚽
L. Sanchez3 ⚽
A. Roa3 ⚽
Jefry Zapata3 ⚽
Cards Given
Atletico NacionalEdwin Cardona8 🟨
Alfredo Morelos8 🟨
Milton Casco7 🟨
Juan Zapata7 🟨
Andrés Román7 🟨
Jorman Campuzano5 🟨
Once CaldasJader Quinones7 🟨
Juan Castaño6 🟨
Robert Mejía5 🟨
Mateo Zuleta5 🟨
Jefry Zapata4 🟨
Jorge Cardona4 🟨