Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A
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Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin meet in the Primera A 2026 season on 25 October 2026. Atletico Nacional have recorded 31 wins from 48 matches this season (65% win rate), averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 46% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 63%; and clean sheets in 33% of games. Independiente Medellin have won 42% of their 52 matches, with 1.44 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 67%, Over 2.5 at 58%, and clean sheets at 19%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.95 for Atletico Nacional and 1.04 for Independiente Medellin. The models give Atletico Nacional a 59% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Independiente Medellin win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 55% and BTTS at 54%.
Season Statistics
Atletico Nacional—
Independiente Medellin1º
Position
11º
2.11
PPG
1.37
68%
Win %
37%
1.84
Goals / game
1.37
0.79
Conceded / game
1.26
46%
BTTS %
67%
33%
Clean sheet %
19%
63%
Over 2.5 %
58%
5.6
Avg corners
4.9
16.4
Avg shots
13.6
6.1
Avg shots on target
4.5
2.6
Avg yellow cards
2.8
11.7
Avg fouls
12.3
59.1%
Avg possession
50.7%
Home vs Away
Atletico Nacional
Home (9)
—
Independiente Medellin
Away (9)
2.78
PPG
1.33
89%
Win %
33%
2.44
Goals / game
1.22
0.33
Conceded / game
1.22
52%
BTTS %
73%
48%
Clean sheet %
12%
64%
Over 2.5 %
62%
5.6
Avg corners
4.9
16.4
Avg shots
13.6
6.1
Avg shots on target
4.5
2.6
Avg yellow cards
2.8
59.1%
Avg possession
50.7%
Goals Scored
| Atletico Nacional | Home | Away | Independiente Medellin | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 92% | 57% | 83% | 85% | 81% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 60% | 68% | 52% | 46% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 40% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 19% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 8% | 43% | 17% | 15% | 19% |
Goals Conceded
| Atletico Nacional | Home | Away | Independiente Medellin | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 67% | 52% | 83% | 81% | 73% | 88% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 21% | 16% | 26% | 38% | 35% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 8% | 4% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 12% |
| Clean Sheets | 33% | 48% | 17% | 19% | 27% | 12% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% |
| Over 4.5 | 15% | 13% |
| BTTS | 46% | 67% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 27% |
| BTTS & Draw | 4% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 42% | 56% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 21% | 2% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 38% | 20% |
| Draw 1st Half | 42% | 48% |
| Loss 1st Half | 21% | 32% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 48% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 44% | 54% |
| Win 2nd Half | 54% | 44% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 30% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 21% | 26% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 60% | 60% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 33% | 42% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 40% | 44% |
Recent Venue Form
Atletico Nacional (H)W
Deportivo Pasto3–0
Deportivo Pasto3–0WIndependiente Medellin3–2
Independiente Medellin3–2D
Deportes Tolima0–0
Deportes Tolima0–0W
Junior3–1
Junior3–1D
Chapecoense-sc1–1
Chapecoense-sc1–1D
Millonarios1–1
Millonarios1–1Independiente Medellin (A)LAtletico Nacional2–3
Atletico Nacional2–3W
America de Cali2–1
America de Cali2–1LJunior0–2
Junior0–2D
Bucaramanga2–2
Bucaramanga2–2L
Chico1–2
Chico1–2WDeportivo Pasto4–1
Deportivo Pasto4–1Number of Corners
9.5
Corners / Match
40 games
League Avg
9.0
344 games
8.9
Corners / Match
43 games
| Match Corners | Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 85% | 77% | 76% |
| Over 7 | 75% | 65% | 68% |
| Over 8 | 65% | 49% | 54% |
| Over 9 | 55% | 37% | 41% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 30% | 29% |
| Over 11 | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Over 12 | 13% | 9% | 12% |
| Over 13 | 8% | 7% | 8% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Atletico Nacional | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 93% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 70% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 70% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 53% | 53% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 40% | 33% |
Head to Head · 43 matches
16
Atletico Nacional
37%
17
Draws
40%
10
Independiente Medellin
23%
72%
Over 1.5
31/43
49%
Over 2.5
21/43
37%
Over 3.5
16/43
63%
BTTS
27/43
15/10/26Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
3–2Independiente Medellin12/04/26Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
2–3Atletico Nacional18/12/25Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
0–1Atletico Nacional13/12/25Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
0–0Independiente Medellin04/12/25Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
2–1Independiente Medellin23/11/25Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
0–0Atletico Nacional26/10/25Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
5–2Independiente Medellin07/09/25Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
3–3Atletico Nacional04/05/25Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
1–1Atletico Nacional23/03/25Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
1–1Independiente Medellin18/11/24Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
1–0Atletico Nacional11/11/24Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
1–1Independiente Medellin01/11/24Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
2–0Independiente Medellin22/04/24Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
2–2Atletico Nacional03/12/23Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
0–5Independiente Medellin19/11/23Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
2–1Atletico Nacional14/10/23Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
1–2Independiente Medellin10/09/23Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
1–0Atletico Nacional30/04/23Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
1–3Atletico Nacional26/03/23Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
1–1Independiente Medellin| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | +28 | 55 |
| 2 | Junior | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | +9 | 44 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | +11 | 40 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | +8 | 37 |
| 5 |  Santa Fe | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | +11 | 35 |
| 6 |  Once Caldas | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportivo Pasto | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Cali | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | +6 | 30 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellin | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +3 | 29 |
| 10 |  Internacional de Bogota | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Millonarios | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +7 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +7 | 26 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | -2 | 25 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -15 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -18 | 10 |
Team Insights
Atletico Nacional- ●Atletico Nacional have been undefeated in their last 18 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have scored in 16 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 of their 21 away matches.
- ●Atletico Nacional have won 12 of their 21 away matches.
- ●76% of Atletico Nacional's goals conceded were conceded away.
- ●Atletico Nacional have conceded 64% of their goals in the first half.
Independiente Medellin- ●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 home matches.
- ●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 18 home matches.
- ●Independiente Medellin failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Independiente Medellin have won 6 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Independiente Medellin have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Independiente Medellin have conceded 63% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
Atletico NacionalWHDeportivo Pasto3–0
Deportivo Pasto3–0LACucuta0–1
Cucuta0–1WAChico4–1
Chico4–1DHDeportes Tolima0–0
Deportes Tolima0–0WHJunior3–1
Junior3–1DHMillonarios1–1
Millonarios1–1–HIndependiente Medellin25/10
Independiente Medellin25/10–HSanta Fe30/10
Santa Fe30/10–ABucaramanga03/11
Bucaramanga03/11Independiente MedellinLHOnce Caldas0–2
Once Caldas0–2WAAmerica de Cali2–1
America de Cali2–1LHSanta Fe0–1
Santa Fe0–1DHMillonarios2–2
Millonarios2–2LAJunior0–2
Junior0–2WHJaguares2–1
Jaguares2–1–AAtletico Nacional25/10
Atletico Nacional25/10–AInternacional de Bogota29/10
Internacional de Bogota29/10–HAlianza Valledupar01/11
Alianza Valledupar01/11Top Scorers
Atletico NacionalA. Morelos17 ⚽
J. Rengifo9 ⚽
M. Moreno8 ⚽
A. Sarmiento7 ⚽
E. Cardona6 ⚽
Andrés Sarmiento3 ⚽
Independiente MedellinJ. Montano8 ⚽
F. Fydriszewski6 ⚽
D. Moreno6 ⚽
F. Chaverra4 ⚽
H. Palacios4 ⚽
D. Catano3 ⚽
Cards Given
Atletico NacionalEdwin Cardona8 🟨
Alfredo Morelos8 🟨
Milton Casco7 🟨
Juan Zapata7 🟨
Andrés Román7 🟨
Jorman Campuzano5 🟨
Independiente MedellinFrancisco Chaverra6 🟨
Yony González6 🟨
Didier Moreno6 🟨
Hayen Palacios5 🟨
Alexis Serna5 🟨
Francisco Fydriszewski5 🟨