NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica — HNL
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NK Varazdin and HNK Gorica meet in the HNL 2026 season on 5 December 2026. NK Varazdin have recorded 16 wins from 30 matches this season (53% win rate), averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 50% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 40% of games. HNK Gorica have won 29% of their 24 matches, with 1.13 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 42%, and clean sheets at 25%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.66 for NK Varazdin and 0.95 for HNK Gorica. The models give NK Varazdin a 57% win probability, with a draw at 24% and an HNK Gorica win at 19%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48% and BTTS at 49%.
Season Statistics
NK Varazdin—
HNK Gorica4º
Position
10º
1.58
PPG
0.58
42%
Win %
8%
1.33
Goals / game
0.58
0.92
Conceded / game
1.67
50%
BTTS %
50%
40%
Clean sheet %
25%
50%
Over 2.5 %
42%
3.8
Avg corners
4.3
12.5
Avg shots
9.5
3.5
Avg shots on target
2.9
1.4
Avg yellow cards
1.4
11.3
Avg fouls
10.5
45.9%
Avg possession
45.2%
Home vs Away
NK Varazdin
Home (6)
—
HNK Gorica
Away (6)
1.83
PPG
0.67
50%
Win %
17%
1.17
Goals / game
0.50
0.50
Conceded / game
2.00
53%
BTTS %
60%
47%
Clean sheet %
10%
40%
Over 2.5 %
50%
3.8
Avg corners
4.3
12.5
Avg shots
9.5
3.5
Avg shots on target
2.9
1.4
Avg yellow cards
1.4
45.9%
Avg possession
45.2%
Goals Scored
| NK Varazdin | Home | Away | HNK Gorica | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 77% | 80% | 73% | 67% | 64% | 70% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 47% | 53% | 40% | 25% | 29% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 27% | 20% | 33% | 13% | 7% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 23% | 20% | 27% | 33% | 36% | 30% |
Goals Conceded
| NK Varazdin | Home | Away | HNK Gorica | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 60% | 53% | 67% | 75% | 64% | 90% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 30% | 20% | 40% | 46% | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 0% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 47% | 33% | 25% | 36% | 10% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| NK Varazdin | HNK Gorica | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 87% | 92% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 13% | 13% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 27% | 13% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 21% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 40% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 4% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| NK Varazdin | HNK Gorica | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 43% | 13% |
| Draw 1st Half | 46% | 38% |
| Loss 1st Half | 11% | 50% |
| Scored 1st Half | 46% | 25% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 18% | 67% |
| Win 2nd Half | 32% | 29% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 54% | 50% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 14% | 21% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 57% | 50% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 54% | 42% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 57% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 25% | 33% |
Recent Venue Form
NK Varazdin (H)D
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1L
NK Slaven Belupo1–2
NK Slaven Belupo1–2D
NK Osijek0–0
NK Osijek0–0D
Istra 19610–0
Istra 19610–0W
Rudes2–0
Rudes2–0W
HNK Rijeka2–0
HNK Rijeka2–0HNK Gorica (A)L
HNK Hajduk Split0–5
HNK Hajduk Split0–5DNK Osijek1–1
NK Osijek1–1D
Maribor1–1
Maribor1–1WIstra 19611–0
Istra 19611–0W
Uskok Klis3–1
Uskok Klis3–1L
Dinamo Zagreb0–1
Dinamo Zagreb0–1Number of Corners
8.6
Corners / Match
12 games
League Avg
9.5
57 games
10.4
Corners / Match
11 games
| Match Corners | NK Varazdin | HNK Gorica | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 75% | 91% | 84% |
| Over 7 | 67% | 82% | 74% |
| Over 8 | 58% | 73% | 58% |
| Over 9 | 50% | 55% | 51% |
| Over 10 | 42% | 45% | 40% |
| Over 11 | 25% | 27% | 25% |
| Over 12 | 8% | 18% | 16% |
| Over 13 | 0% | 18% | 12% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | NK Varazdin | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.8 | 6.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 58% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 42% | 45% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 42% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 75% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 67% | 82% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 50% | 64% |
Head to Head · 31 matches
12
NK Varazdin
39%
11
Draws
35%
8
HNK Gorica
26%
74%
Over 1.5
23/31
58%
Over 2.5
18/31
32%
Over 3.5
10/31
71%
BTTS
22/31
14/09/26NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
2–2NK Varazdin03/04/26HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1–1HNK Gorica04/03/26HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1–3HNK Gorica26/01/26NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
1–2NK Varazdin19/10/25NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
1–3NK Varazdin04/08/25HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1–1HNK Gorica04/04/25HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
0–0HNK Gorica25/01/25NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
1–1NK Varazdin14/11/24HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1–1HNK Gorica20/10/24HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
2–1HNK Gorica03/08/24NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
0–0NK Varazdin30/03/24HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
2–4HNK Gorica15/12/23NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
1–3NK Varazdin30/09/23HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1–0HNK Gorica23/07/23NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
1–1NK Varazdin20/05/23NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
5–2NK Varazdin17/03/23HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
2–1HNK Gorica18/01/23NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
0–0NK Varazdin03/09/22HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
2–1HNK Gorica25/06/22HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
2–1HNK Gorica| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +15 | 26 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 20 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 19 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 13 |
| 8 | Rudes | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 13 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 7 |
Team Insights
NK Varazdin- ●NK Varazdin have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●NK Varazdin have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●NK Varazdin failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●NK Varazdin have scored in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●73% of NK Varazdin's goals conceded were conceded away.
HNK Gorica- ●HNK Gorica have failed to win in their last 4 matches.
- ●HNK Gorica have failed to win in their last 6 home matches.
- ●HNK Gorica failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their 6 home matches.
- ●HNK Gorica failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their 6 away matches.
- ●HNK Gorica have lost 4 of their 6 away matches.
- ●HNK Gorica have conceded 60% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
NK VarazdinDAHNK Rijeka1–1
HNK Rijeka1–1LHNK Slaven Belupo1–2
NK Slaven Belupo1–2LAHNK Hajduk Split0–1
HNK Hajduk Split0–1WANK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–0DHNK Osijek0–0
NK Osijek0–0DAHNK Gorica2–2
HNK Gorica2–2–HDinamo Zagreb08/11
Dinamo Zagreb08/11–ARudes21/11
Rudes21/11–AIstra 196128/11
Istra 196128/11HNK GoricaLAHNK Hajduk Split0–5
HNK Hajduk Split0–5DHNK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–0DANK Osijek1–1
NK Osijek1–1LHRudes1–2
Rudes1–2WAIstra 19611–0
Istra 19611–0DHNK Varazdin2–2
NK Varazdin2–2–HNK Slaven Belupo07/11
NK Slaven Belupo07/11–AHNK Rijeka21/11
HNK Rijeka21/11–HDinamo Zagreb28/11
Dinamo Zagreb28/11Top Scorers
NK VarazdinL. Mamic7 ⚽
I. Mamut4 ⚽
I. Tavares4 ⚽
I. Canjuga4 ⚽
A. Latkovic4 ⚽
S. Juric4 ⚽
HNK GoricaA. Erceg4 ⚽
3 ⚽
B. Bogojevic3 ⚽
T. Epailly2 ⚽
Bruno Bogojević2 ⚽
J. Pranjic2 ⚽
Cards Given
NK VarazdinG. Sikosek2 🟨
Novak Tepsic2 🟨
Aleksa Latkovic2 🟨
F. Maglica2 🟨
Ivan Canjuga2 🟨
Tomislav Duvnjak2 🟨
HNK Gorica3 🟨
frigan juraj2 🟨
Dušan Stevanović2 🟨
I. Cvijanovic2 🟨
L. Vrzic2 🟨
Goncalo Costa1 🟨