Tartu Welco vs Maardu — Esiliiga A
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Tartu Welco and Maardu meet in the Esiliiga A 2026 season on 8 November 2026. Tartu Welco have recorded 24 wins from 40 matches this season (60% win rate), averaging 2.77 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 60% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 78%; and clean sheets in 28% of games. Maardu have won 44% of their 34 matches, with 1.68 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 71%, Over 2.5 at 68%, and clean sheets at 15%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 2.70 for Tartu Welco and 1.74 for Maardu. The models give Tartu Welco a 59% win probability, with a draw at 20% and an Maardu win at 21%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 82% and BTTS at 77%.
Season Statistics
Tartu Welco—
Maardu1º
Position
6º
2.25
PPG
1.30
70%
Win %
35%
3.10
Goals / game
1.50
1.30
Conceded / game
2.35
60%
BTTS %
71%
28%
Clean sheet %
15%
78%
Over 2.5 %
68%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Tartu Welco
Home (10)
—
Maardu
Away (10)
2.10
PPG
0.90
60%
Win %
20%
3.20
Goals / game
1.60
1.70
Conceded / game
2.70
67%
BTTS %
79%
22%
Clean sheet %
7%
94%
Over 2.5 %
79%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Tartu Welco | Home | Away | Maardu | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 89% | 82% | 79% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 68% | 83% | 55% | 50% | 45% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 53% | 72% | 36% | 29% | 20% | 43% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 11% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 21% |
Goals Conceded
| Tartu Welco | Home | Away | Maardu | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 73% | 78% | 68% | 85% | 80% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 53% | 67% | 41% | 41% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 20% | 28% | 14% | 29% | 20% | 43% |
| Clean Sheets | 28% | 22% | 32% | 15% | 20% | 7% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Tartu Welco | Maardu | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 98% | 94% |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 82% |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 50% |
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 41% |
| BTTS | 60% | 71% |
| BTTS & Win | 35% | 35% |
| BTTS & Draw | 13% | 15% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 57% | 59% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 20% | 9% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Tartu Welco | Maardu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 55% | 27% |
| Draw 1st Half | 15% | 52% |
| Loss 1st Half | 30% | 21% |
| Scored 1st Half | 65% | 55% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 50% | 48% |
| Win 2nd Half | 57% | 27% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 20% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 39% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 73% | 55% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 53% | 73% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 90% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 48% | 58% |
Recent Venue Form
Tartu Welco (H)W
Tallinna Kalev3–2
Tallinna Kalev3–2W
Nõmme United II4–3
Nõmme United II4–3W
Elva4–0
Elva4–0W
Nõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0L
Viimsi1–3
Viimsi1–3W
FCI Levadia II4–2
FCI Levadia II4–2Maardu (A)WTallinna Kalev3–1
Tallinna Kalev3–1LElva0–1
Elva0–1WNõmme Kalju II4–1
Nõmme Kalju II4–1W
Flora II3–1
Flora II3–1DTallinna Kalev3–3
Tallinna Kalev3–3LElva3–4
Elva3–4Head to Head · 14 matches
3
Tartu Welco
21%
1
Draws
7%
10
Maardu
71%
86%
Over 1.5
12/14
71%
Over 2.5
10/14
71%
Over 3.5
10/14
36%
BTTS
5/14
13/07/26Tartu Welco
Maardu
1–8Tartu Welco24/05/26Tartu Welco
Maardu
0–1Tartu Welco21/03/26Maardu
Tartu Welco
5–1Maardu18/09/21Tartu Welco
Maardu
7–0Tartu Welco14/07/21Maardu
Tartu Welco
0–4Maardu31/05/21Tartu Welco
Maardu
6–0Tartu Welco30/09/18Maardu
Tartu Welco
0–1Maardu12/08/18Maardu
Tartu Welco
0–2Maardu01/05/18Tartu Welco
Maardu
6–0Tartu Welco02/03/18Tartu Welco
Maardu
5–1Tartu Welco28/09/17Tartu Welco
Maardu
4–0Tartu Welco09/08/17Maardu
Tartu Welco
0–5Maardu04/05/17Maardu
Tartu Welco
1–1Maardu01/05/17Tartu Welco
Maardu
5–1Tartu Welco| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | +55 | 74 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +29 | 57 |
| 3 | Flora II | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | +19 | 51 |
| 4 | FCI Levadia II | 32 | 16 | 2 | 14 | +8 | 50 |
| 5 | Elva | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 43 |
| 7 |  FC Tallinn | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 38 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -43 | 24 |
Team Insights
Tartu Welco- ●Tartu Welco have won their last 6 matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have won their last 4 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have won their last 2 away matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Tartu Welco failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in 16 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have won 11 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Tartu Welco have scored in 14 of their 17 away matches.
Maardu- ●Maardu have won their last 3 matches.
- ●Maardu have scored a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- ●Maardu have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Maardu have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Maardu failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Maardu failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Maardu have scored in 12 of their 14 home matches.
- ●Maardu failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 13 away matches.
- ●Maardu have scored in 10 of their 13 away matches.
Season Schedule
Tartu WelcoWHTallinna Kalev3–2
Tallinna Kalev3–2WHNõmme United II4–3
Nõmme United II4–3WAFC Tallinn7–0
FC Tallinn7–0WHElva4–0
Elva4–0WAViimsi2–0
Viimsi2–0WHNõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0–AFlora II31/10
Flora II31/10–HMaardu08/11
Maardu08/11MaarduWHNõmme United II2–1
Nõmme United II2–1WHFCI Levadia II4–2
FCI Levadia II4–2WATallinna Kalev3–1
Tallinna Kalev3–1LAElva0–1
Elva0–1WHFC Tallinn1–0
FC Tallinn1–0LHViimsi1–2
Viimsi1–2–ATartu Welco08/11
Tartu Welco08/11Top Scorers
Tartu WelcoK. Laasner34 ⚽
R. Roots10 ⚽
M. Mugra10 ⚽
H. Kablik8 ⚽
E. Veensalu7 ⚽
E. Mottus6 ⚽
MaarduA. Volkov15 ⚽
E. Kouadio12 ⚽
S. Tsombaljuk7 ⚽
6 ⚽
M. Tserezov3 ⚽
F. Kouakou2 ⚽
Cards Given
Tartu WelcoMaarduD. Lebedev2 🟨
A. Volkov1 🟨