Elva vs Tallinna Kalev — Esiliiga A
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Elva and Tallinna Kalev meet in the Esiliiga A 2026 season on 1 November 2026. Elva have recorded 22 wins from 42 matches this season (52% win rate), averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 55% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 69%; and clean sheets in 29% of games. Tallinna Kalev have won 37% of their 41 matches, with 2.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 68%, Over 2.5 at 80%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.84 for Elva and 1.67 for Tallinna Kalev. The models give Elva a 48% win probability, with a draw at 23% and an Tallinna Kalev win at 29%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 68% and BTTS at 68%.
Season Statistics
Elva—
Tallinna Kalev4º
Position
7º
1.50
PPG
1.25
45%
Win %
35%
1.85
Goals / game
2.00
1.65
Conceded / game
2.00
55%
BTTS %
68%
29%
Clean sheet %
17%
69%
Over 2.5 %
80%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Elva
Home (10)
—
Tallinna Kalev
Away (10)
1.50
PPG
0.80
50%
Win %
20%
1.60
Goals / game
1.40
1.90
Conceded / game
2.00
59%
BTTS %
62%
27%
Clean sheet %
19%
64%
Over 2.5 %
81%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Elva | Home | Away | Tallinna Kalev | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 82% | 75% | 85% | 90% | 81% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 57% | 55% | 60% | 51% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 33% | 27% | 40% | 29% | 35% | 24% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 18% | 25% | 15% | 10% | 19% |
Goals Conceded
| Elva | Home | Away | Tallinna Kalev | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 71% | 73% | 70% | 83% | 85% | 81% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 40% | 41% | 40% | 54% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 24% | 27% | 20% | 37% | 30% | 43% |
| Clean Sheets | 29% | 27% | 30% | 17% | 15% | 19% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Elva | Tallinna Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 100% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 98% |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 54% |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 34% |
| BTTS | 55% | 68% |
| BTTS & Win | 29% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 12% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 50% | 59% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 19% | 22% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Elva | Tallinna Kalev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 40% | 37% |
| Draw 1st Half | 33% | 24% |
| Loss 1st Half | 28% | 39% |
| Scored 1st Half | 55% | 56% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 40% | 61% |
| Win 2nd Half | 38% | 37% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 40% | 22% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 41% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 63% | 63% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 45% | 66% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 75% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 43% | 54% |
Recent Venue Form
Elva (H)WTallinna Kalev3–2
Tallinna Kalev3–2D
FC Tallinn1–1
FC Tallinn1–1W
Nõmme Kalju II1–0
Nõmme Kalju II1–0D
Flora II0–0
Flora II0–0W
Maardu1–0
Maardu1–0W
Joker3–0
Joker3–0Tallinna Kalev (A)L
Tartu Welco2–3
Tartu Welco2–3LElva2–3
Elva2–3L
Nõmme United II1–2
Nõmme United II1–2LFlora II0–5
Flora II0–5WNõmme Kalju II3–0
Nõmme Kalju II3–0W
Viimsi2–1
Viimsi2–1Head to Head · 13 matches
2
Elva
15%
1
Draws
8%
10
Tallinna Kalev
77%
69%
Over 1.5
9/13
62%
Over 2.5
8/13
38%
Over 3.5
5/13
38%
BTTS
5/13
24/09/26Tallinna Kalev
Elva
3–2Tallinna Kalev15/08/26Elva
Tallinna Kalev
1–0Elva24/05/26Tallinna Kalev
Elva
3–1Tallinna Kalev09/04/26Elva
Tallinna Kalev
2–1Elva30/10/25Tallinna Kalev
Elva
1–2Tallinna Kalev29/01/23Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–0Tallinna Kalev29/09/21Tallinna Kalev
Elva
1–2Tallinna Kalev14/07/21Elva
Tallinna Kalev
1–0Elva30/05/21Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–4Tallinna Kalev30/09/17Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–5Tallinna Kalev10/08/17Elva
Tallinna Kalev
8–0Elva15/06/17Tallinna Kalev
Elva
0–1Tallinna Kalev16/03/17Elva
Tallinna Kalev
2–0Elva| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | +55 | 74 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +29 | 57 |
| 3 | Flora II | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | +19 | 51 |
| 4 |  FCI Levadia II | 32 | 16 | 2 | 14 | +8 | 50 |
| 5 | Elva | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 43 |
| 7 | FC Tallinn | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 38 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -43 | 24 |
Team Insights
Elva- ●Elva have failed to win in their last 3 matches.
- ●Elva have been undefeated in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Elva failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Elva failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Elva have won 6 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Elva have scored in 12 of their 17 away matches.
Tallinna Kalev- ●Tallinna Kalev have failed to win in their last 8 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have lost their last 3 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have failed to win in their last 5 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in each of their last 11 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have lost their last 3 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 3 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in 16 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have lost 9 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Tallinna Kalev have scored in 12 of their 15 away matches.
Season Schedule
ElvaDANõmme Kalju II0–0
Nõmme Kalju II0–0LATartu Welco0–4
Tartu Welco0–4DHFC Tallinn1–1
FC Tallinn1–1WAFlora II2–1
Flora II2–1LAViimsi0–5
Viimsi0–5WHNõmme Kalju II1–0
Nõmme Kalju II1–0–HTallinna Kalev01/11
Tallinna Kalev01/11–HNõmme United II08/11
Nõmme United II08/11Tallinna KalevLATartu Welco2–3
Tartu Welco2–3LHFCI Levadia II1–2
FCI Levadia II1–2LHViimsi1–2
Viimsi1–2DHFlora II2–2
Flora II2–2LANõmme United II1–2
Nõmme United II1–2DHTartu Welco1–1
Tartu Welco1–1–HNõmme Kalju II29/10
Nõmme Kalju II29/10–AElva01/11
Elva01/11–AFC Tallinn08/11
FC Tallinn08/11Top Scorers
Elva10 ⚽
J. Mbuthia9 ⚽
K. Burov5 ⚽
K. Haabma4 ⚽
R. Neltsas4 ⚽
K. Poldsaar3 ⚽
Tallinna KalevR. Ilves17 ⚽
M. Tomberg9 ⚽
A. Gusarov8 ⚽
O. De Pizzol7 ⚽
V. Mihhailov7 ⚽
7 ⚽
Cards Given
ElvaD. Laaneots2 🟨
G. Lani2 🟨
Peeter Alev1 🟨
1 🟨
Tallinna KalevA. Sikk1 🟨
A. Timoska1 🟨
Ander Sikk1 🟨
Artur Sibul1 🟨
D. Petrunin1 🟨
D. Sal-Al-Saller1 🟨