Vaprus vs Kuressaare — Meistriliiga
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Pärnu Rannastaadion·Pärnu·Estonia·2,495
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Vaprus and Kuressaare meet in the Meistriliiga 2026 season on 28 October 2026. Vaprus have recorded 14 wins from 42 matches this season (33% win rate), averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 64% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 71%; and clean sheets in 19% of games. Kuressaare have won 34% of their 41 matches, with 1.51 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 51%, Over 2.5 at 59%, and clean sheets at 17%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.73 for Vaprus and 1.30 for Kuressaare. The models give Vaprus a 47% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Kuressaare win at 28%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Vaprus—
Kuressaare7º
Position
8º
1.09
PPG
1.06
30%
Win %
30%
1.36
Goals / game
1.03
2.03
Conceded / game
1.58
64%
BTTS %
51%
19%
Clean sheet %
17%
71%
Over 2.5 %
59%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0
Avg fouls
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Home vs Away
Vaprus
Home (16)
—
Kuressaare
Away (16)
1.56
PPG
0.88
44%
Win %
25%
1.75
Goals / game
0.88
1.63
Conceded / game
1.69
65%
BTTS %
47%
20%
Clean sheet %
16%
65%
Over 2.5 %
58%
0.0
Avg corners
0.0
0.0
Avg shots
0.0
0.0
Avg shots on target
0.0
0.0
Avg yellow cards
0.0
0.0%
Avg possession
0.0%
Goals Scored
| Vaprus | Home | Away | Kuressaare | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 79% | 80% | 77% | 61% | 64% | 58% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 48% | 50% | 45% | 46% | 55% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 19% | 25% | 14% | 24% | 32% | 16% |
| Failed To Score | 21% | 20% | 23% | 39% | 36% | 42% |
Goals Conceded
| Vaprus | Home | Away | Kuressaare | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 81% | 80% | 82% | 83% | 82% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 67% | 65% | 68% | 54% | 55% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 29% | 15% | 41% | 20% | 14% | 26% |
| Clean Sheets | 19% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Vaprus | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 73% |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 44% |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 29% |
| BTTS | 64% | 51% |
| BTTS & Win | 19% | 24% |
| BTTS & Draw | 12% | 10% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 62% | 49% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Vaprus | Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 26% | 39% |
| Draw 1st Half | 40% | 27% |
| Loss 1st Half | 33% | 34% |
| Scored 1st Half | 60% | 49% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 57% | 51% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 20% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 19% | 34% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 48% | 46% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 57% | 41% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 64% | 66% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 79% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 60% | 39% |
Recent Venue Form
Vaprus (H)D
Kalju Nomme2–2
Kalju Nomme2–2D
Trans Narva2–2
Trans Narva2–2W
Laagri3–2
Laagri3–2W
Nõmme United1–0
Nõmme United1–0L
Flora Tallinn1–2
Flora Tallinn1–2D
FC Levadia Tallinn1–1
FC Levadia Tallinn1–1Kuressaare (A)WTrans Narva1–0
Trans Narva1–0DLaagri0–0
Laagri0–0LFC Levadia Tallinn0–4
FC Levadia Tallinn0–4L
Tammeka0–1
Tammeka0–1WFlora Tallinn3–2
Flora Tallinn3–2W
Kristiine JK8–0
Kristiine JK8–0Head to Head · 26 matches
11
Vaprus
42%
4
Draws
15%
11
Kuressaare
42%
73%
Over 1.5
19/26
65%
Over 2.5
17/26
42%
Over 3.5
11/26
62%
BTTS
16/26
29/08/26Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–2Vaprus26/06/26Kuressaare
Vaprus
1–0Kuressaare21/04/26Vaprus
Kuressaare
0–1Vaprus31/01/26Kuressaare
Vaprus
9–2Kuressaare21/10/25Kuressaare
Vaprus
0–1Kuressaare20/07/25Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–1Vaprus01/06/25Kuressaare
Vaprus
2–1Kuressaare18/04/25Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–0Vaprus01/02/25Vaprus
Kuressaare
0–2Vaprus06/10/24Kuressaare
Vaprus
3–1Kuressaare28/07/24Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–1Vaprus28/05/24Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–2Vaprus17/03/24Kuressaare
Vaprus
3–2Kuressaare11/11/23Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–0Vaprus17/09/23Kuressaare
Vaprus
3–1Kuressaare03/05/23Kuressaare
Vaprus
1–2Kuressaare19/03/23Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–2Vaprus06/11/22Vaprus
Kuressaare
1–0Vaprus06/08/22Kuressaare
Vaprus
0–1Kuressaare25/07/22Vaprus
Kuressaare
2–2Vaprus| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | +66 | 84 |
| 2 |  Paide | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | +14 | 60 |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | +16 | 58 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | +21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 33 | 16 | 2 | 15 | -5 | 50 |
| 6 | Laagri | 34 | 15 | 2 | 17 | -1 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -22 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | -18 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 33 | 11 | 1 | 21 | -22 | 34 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 33 | 5 | 5 | 23 | -49 | 20 |
Team Insights
Vaprus- ●Vaprus have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Vaprus have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 8 matches.
- ●Vaprus have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in each of their last 13 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost their last 5 away matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 9 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have conceded a minimum of 2 goals in each of their last 9 away matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in 14 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Vaprus failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have lost 12 of their 17 away matches.
- ●Vaprus have scored in 12 of their 17 away matches.
- ●62% of Vaprus's goals have been scored at home.
Kuressaare- ●Kuressaare have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 away matches.
- ●Kuressaare failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 17 home matches.
- ●Kuressaare failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Kuressaare have lost 10 of their 16 away matches.
Season Schedule
VaprusLANõmme United2–4
Nõmme United2–4LALaagri0–2
Laagri0–2DHKalju Nomme2–2
Kalju Nomme2–2DHTrans Narva2–2
Trans Narva2–2LAFlora Tallinn2–3
Flora Tallinn2–3LAPaide0–2
Paide0–2–HKuressaare28/10
Kuressaare28/10–HPaide31/10
Paide31/10–ATammeka07/11
Tammeka07/11KuressaareLHPaide0–1
Paide0–1LHFC Levadia Tallinn0–2
FC Levadia Tallinn0–2WATrans Narva1–0
Trans Narva1–0WHFlora Tallinn2–0
Flora Tallinn2–0DALaagri0–0
Laagri0–0LHTammeka1–3
Tammeka1–3–AVaprus28/10
Vaprus28/10–AKalju Nomme01/11
Kalju Nomme01/11–HNõmme United07/11
Nõmme United07/11Top Scorers
VaprusH. Valja11 ⚽
M. Limberg10 ⚽
S. Viidas8 ⚽
T. Pajo7 ⚽
S. Kapper5 ⚽
R. Orm4 ⚽
KuressaareA. Kivi10 ⚽
10 ⚽
T. Jurisoo8 ⚽
E. Demidov8 ⚽
A. Visse3 ⚽
J. Vahermagi3 ⚽
Cards Given
VaprusJ. Poder8 🟨
S. Kapper6 🟨
T. Pajo6 🟨
K. Kauber5 🟨
K. Aloe5 🟨
J. Sild5 🟨
KuressaareM. Lukka6 🟨
J. Vahermagi5 🟨
E. Demidov4 🟨
D. Andreas4 🟨
K. Nomm3 🟨
R. Saar3 🟨