Gremio vs Bahia — Serie A
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Gremio and Bahia meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 18 November 2026. Gremio have recorded 21 wins from 59 matches this season (36% win rate), averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 53% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 44%; and clean sheets in 32% of games. Bahia have won 49% of their 49 matches, with 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 65%, Over 2.5 at 59%, and clean sheets at 24%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.63 for Gremio and 1.42 for Bahia. The models give Gremio a 38% win probability, with a draw at 26% and an Bahia win at 37%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58% and BTTS at 60%.
Season Statistics
Gremio—
Bahia18º
Position
7º
1.00
PPG
1.58
23%
Win %
42%
1.10
Goals / game
1.42
1.42
Conceded / game
1.26
53%
BTTS %
65%
32%
Clean sheet %
24%
44%
Over 2.5 %
59%
4.2
Avg corners
5.7
12.3
Avg shots
13.4
4.0
Avg shots on target
4.6
2.6
Avg yellow cards
2.4
12.7
Avg fouls
13.4
51.4%
Avg possession
55.6%
Home vs Away
Gremio
Home (16)
—
Bahia
Away (15)
1.63
PPG
1.47
44%
Win %
40%
1.56
Goals / game
1.40
1.31
Conceded / game
1.47
55%
BTTS %
57%
35%
Clean sheet %
26%
45%
Over 2.5 %
48%
4.2
Avg corners
5.7
12.3
Avg shots
13.4
4.0
Avg shots on target
4.6
2.6
Avg yellow cards
2.4
51.4%
Avg possession
55.6%
Goals Scored
| Gremio | Home | Away | Bahia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 75% | 84% | 64% | 86% | 92% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 37% | 45% | 29% | 51% | 62% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 17% | 23% | 11% | 24% | 31% | 17% |
| Failed To Score | 25% | 16% | 36% | 14% | 8% | 22% |
Goals Conceded
| Gremio | Home | Away | Bahia | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 68% | 65% | 71% | 76% | 77% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 29% | 23% | 36% | 39% | 35% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 12% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 13% |
| Clean Sheets | 32% | 35% | 29% | 24% | 23% | 26% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Gremio | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 31% |
| Over 4.5 | 12% | 20% |
| BTTS | 53% | 65% |
| BTTS & Win | 14% | 29% |
| BTTS & Draw | 20% | 22% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 34% | 51% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 10% | 8% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Gremio | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 29% | 43% |
| Draw 1st Half | 47% | 35% |
| Loss 1st Half | 24% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 44% | 61% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 41% | 53% |
| Win 2nd Half | 41% | 31% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 29% | 39% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 31% | 31% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 54% | 49% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 46% | 47% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 64% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 29% | 49% |
Recent Venue Form
Gremio (H)L
Cruzeiro2–4
Cruzeiro2–4D
Internacional1–1
Internacional1–1D
Palmeiras0–0
Palmeiras0–0L
Vasco DA Gama1–2
Vasco DA Gama1–2WInternacional3–1
Internacional3–1W
Chapecoense-sc3–1
Chapecoense-sc3–1Bahia (A)D
Santos1–1
Santos1–1LPalmeiras0–1
Palmeiras0–1L
Atletico Paranaense1–2
Atletico Paranaense1–2W
RB Bragantino3–2
RB Bragantino3–2W
Vitoria2–0
Vitoria2–0DChapecoense-sc3–3
Chapecoense-sc3–3Number of Corners
9.4
Corners / Match
45 games
League Avg
10.4
314 games
11.1
Corners / Match
34 games
| Match Corners | Gremio | Bahia | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 76% | 91% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 71% | 88% | 77% |
| Over 8 | 67% | 74% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 51% | 62% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 38% | 44% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 29% | 44% | 34% |
| Over 12 | 18% | 32% | 27% |
| Over 13 | 11% | 29% | 21% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Gremio | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.2 | 5.4 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 69% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 53% | 79% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 38% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 82% | 79% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 67% | 65% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 62% | 56% |
Head to Head · 31 matches
14
Gremio
45%
9
Draws
29%
8
Bahia
26%
61%
Over 1.5
19/31
26%
Over 2.5
8/31
13%
Over 3.5
4/31
39%
BTTS
12/31
17/05/26Gremio
Bahia
1–1Gremio19/10/25Gremio
Bahia
4–0Gremio25/05/25Bahia
Gremio
1–0Bahia17/08/24Bahia
Gremio
0–2Bahia28/04/24Gremio
Bahia
1–0Gremio04/11/23Bahia
Gremio
1–0Bahia12/07/23Bahia
Gremio
1–1Bahia05/07/23Gremio
Bahia
1–1Gremio01/07/23Gremio
Bahia
1–2Gremio16/10/22Bahia
Gremio
1–1Bahia03/07/22Gremio
Bahia
0–0Gremio26/11/21Gremio
Bahia
3–1Gremio21/08/21Bahia
Gremio
2–0Bahia06/01/21Bahia
Gremio
2–1Bahia10/09/20Gremio
Bahia
0–2Gremio16/10/19Bahia
Gremio
0–1Bahia17/07/19Gremio
Bahia
0–1Gremio10/07/19Bahia
Gremio
1–1Bahia01/06/19Gremio
Bahia
1–0Gremio07/10/18Bahia
Gremio
2–2Bahia| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Gremio- ●Gremio have failed to win in their last 7 matches.
- ●Gremio have failed to win in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 7 away matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Gremio failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 15 away matches.
- ●Gremio have lost 10 of their 15 away matches.
- ●74% of Gremio's goals have been scored at home.
- ●84% of Gremio's points have been earned at home.
Bahia- ●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Bahia have scored in 14 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Bahia have won 6 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Bahia have scored in 13 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Bahia have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Season Schedule
GremioLHCruzeiro2–4
Cruzeiro2–4DHInternacional1–1
Internacional1–1DARemo1–1
Remo1–1DHPalmeiras0–0
Palmeiras0–0LABotafogo2–3
Botafogo2–3LHVasco DA Gama1–2
Vasco DA Gama1–2–ACoritiba26/10
Coritiba26/10–HAtletico Paranaense30/10
Atletico Paranaense30/10–AFlamengo04/11
Flamengo04/11BahiaDASantos1–1
Santos1–1LHFlamengo0–3
Flamengo0–3WHMirassol1–0
Mirassol1–0LAPalmeiras0–1
Palmeiras0–1LAAtletico Paranaense1–2
Atletico Paranaense1–2WHRemo2–1
Remo2–1–HSao Paulo29/10
Sao Paulo29/10–ACruzeiro06/11
Cruzeiro06/11–AGremio18/11
Gremio18/11Top Scorers
GremioCarlos Vinicius21 ⚽
F. Amuzu8 ⚽
C. Pavon5 ⚽
Gustavo Martins4 ⚽
M. Braithwaite4 ⚽
Carlos Vinícius3 ⚽
BahiaWillian Jose9 ⚽
Luciano Juba8 ⚽
Erick8 ⚽
Everaldo7 ⚽
Jean Lucas6 ⚽
Luciano4 ⚽
Cards Given
GremioWalter Kannemann13 🟨
Viery9 🟨
Gustavo Martins8 🟨
Wagner Leonardo7 🟨
Pedro Gabriel7 🟨
Carlos Vinicius6 🟨
BahiaErick7 🟨
Jean Lucas7 🟨
Nicolás Acevedo7 🟨
Luciano Juba6 🟨
Ademir6 🟨
Erick Pulga5 🟨