Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A
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Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 4 November 2026. Atletico Paranaense have recorded 21 wins from 48 matches this season (44% win rate), averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 54% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 50%; and clean sheets in 27% of games. Vasco DA Gama have won 40% of their 60 matches, with 1.35 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 50%, Over 2.5 at 50%, and clean sheets at 33%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.71 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.05 for Vasco DA Gama. The models give Atletico Paranaense a 54% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Vasco DA Gama win at 21%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52% and BTTS at 53%.
Season Statistics
Atletico Paranaense—
Vasco DA Gama4º
Position
13º
1.69
PPG
1.23
47%
Win %
32%
1.56
Goals / game
1.26
1.19
Conceded / game
1.45
54%
BTTS %
50%
27%
Clean sheet %
33%
50%
Over 2.5 %
50%
5.1
Avg corners
5.4
12.8
Avg shots
16.0
4.8
Avg shots on target
5.2
2.2
Avg yellow cards
2.0
13.8
Avg fouls
12.6
48.8%
Avg possession
54.2%
Home vs Away
Atletico Paranaense
Home (16)
—
Vasco DA Gama
Away (15)
2.00
PPG
0.73
56%
Win %
13%
1.69
Goals / game
1.00
0.94
Conceded / game
1.67
43%
BTTS %
55%
39%
Clean sheet %
28%
39%
Over 2.5 %
48%
5.1
Avg corners
5.4
12.8
Avg shots
16.0
4.8
Avg shots on target
5.2
2.2
Avg yellow cards
2.0
48.8%
Avg possession
54.2%
Goals Scored
| Atletico Paranaense | Home | Away | Vasco DA | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 73% | 74% | 72% | 70% | 71% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 50% | 61% | 40% | 40% | 42% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 19% | 22% | 16% | 18% | 23% | 14% |
| Failed To Score | 27% | 26% | 28% | 30% | 29% | 31% |
Goals Conceded
| Atletico Paranaense | Home | Away | Vasco DA | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 73% | 61% | 84% | 67% | 61% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 27% | 13% | 40% | 28% | 29% | 28% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 13% | 4% | 20% | 12% | 10% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 27% | 39% | 16% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Atletico Paranaense | Vasco DA | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92% | 87% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% |
| Over 4.5 | 17% | 13% |
| BTTS | 54% | 50% |
| BTTS & Win | 25% | 20% |
| BTTS & Draw | 19% | 17% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 44% | 40% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 6% | 10% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Atletico Paranaense | Vasco DA | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 35% | 32% |
| Draw 1st Half | 38% | 40% |
| Loss 1st Half | 27% | 28% |
| Scored 1st Half | 56% | 35% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 54% | 38% |
| Win 2nd Half | 33% | 40% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 44% | 33% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 52% | 53% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 40% | 47% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 81% | 63% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 48% | 17% |
Recent Venue Form
Atletico Paranaense (H)L
Palmeiras0–2
Palmeiras0–2D
Atletico-MG2–2
Atletico-MG2–2W
Bahia2–1
Bahia2–1D
Fluminense3–3
Fluminense3–3D
RB Bragantino1–1
RB Bragantino1–1W
Vitoria2–0
Vitoria2–0Vasco DA (A)L
Sao Paulo0–1
Sao Paulo0–1W
Boca Juniors1–0
Boca Juniors1–0W
Botafogo2–1
Botafogo2–1W
Gremio2–1
Gremio2–1D
Santa Fe0–0
Santa Fe0–0LFluminense0–1
Fluminense0–1Number of Corners
9.9
Corners / Match
36 games
League Avg
10.4
314 games
9.5
Corners / Match
59 games
| Match Corners | Atletico Paranaense | Vasco DA | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 83% | 83% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 81% | 68% | 77% |
| Over 8 | 67% | 59% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 56% | 51% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 36% | 36% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 28% | 25% | 34% |
| Over 12 | 22% | 17% | 27% |
| Over 13 | 14% | 14% | 21% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Atletico Paranaense | Vasco DA |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 75% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 61% | 69% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 56% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 75% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 58% | 58% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 42% | 46% |
Head to Head · 22 matches
9
Atletico Paranaense
41%
6
Draws
27%
7
Vasco DA
32%
64%
Over 1.5
14/22
41%
Over 2.5
9/22
18%
Over 3.5
4/22
45%
BTTS
10/22
10/05/26Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
1–0Atletico Paranaense12/09/24Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2–1Vasco DA Gama29/08/24Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
2–1Atletico Paranaense27/08/24Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
2–1Atletico Paranaense05/05/24Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1–0Vasco DA Gama25/11/23Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
0–0Vasco DA Gama23/07/23Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0–2Atletico Paranaense27/12/20Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
3–0Vasco DA Gama06/09/20Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
1–0Atletico Paranaense22/09/19Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
1–1Atletico Paranaense28/04/19Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
4–1Vasco DA Gama14/11/18Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
1–1Atletico Paranaense29/08/18Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1–0Vasco DA Gama19/11/17Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
3–1Vasco DA Gama31/07/17Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0–1Atletico Paranaense13/09/15Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
2–0Atletico Paranaense07/06/15Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2–0Vasco DA Gama08/09/13Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0–0Atletico Paranaense13/10/11Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
2–2Vasco DA Gama16/07/11Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
2–1Atletico Paranaense| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Atletico Paranaense- ●Atletico Paranaense failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 home matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense have scored in each of their last 6 away matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense have won 6 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense have scored in 12 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Atletico Paranaense have conceded 58% of their goals in the first half.
Vasco DA- ●Vasco DA Gama have been undefeated in their last 4 home matches.
- ●Vasco DA Gama failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 5 away matches.
- ●Vasco DA Gama failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Vasco DA Gama failed to keep a clean sheet in 14 of their 15 away matches.
- ●62% of Vasco DA Gama's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
Atletico ParanaenseDAVitoria1–1
Vitoria1–1LHPalmeiras0–2
Palmeiras0–2WAChapecoense-sc4–1
Chapecoense-sc4–1DHAtletico-MG2–2
Atletico-MG2–2WHBahia2–1
Bahia2–1DACoritiba3–3
Coritiba3–3–AGremio30/10
Gremio30/10–HVasco DA Gama04/11
Vasco DA Gama04/11–AFlamengo18/11
Flamengo18/11Vasco DAWHCorinthians3–2
Corinthians3–2LASao Paulo0–1
Sao Paulo0–1DHRemo0–0
Remo0–0WABotafogo2–1
Botafogo2–1WHCoritiba5–0
Coritiba5–0WAGremio2–1
Gremio2–1–HFlamengo29/10
Flamengo29/10–AAtletico Paranaense04/11
Atletico Paranaense04/11–HInternacional18/11
Internacional18/11Top Scorers
Atletico ParanaenseK. Viveros18 ⚽
S. Mendoza5 ⚽
Leozinho5 ⚽
Chiqueti5 ⚽
Joao Cruz4 ⚽
Bruninho4 ⚽
Vasco DAThiago Mendes8 ⚽
C. Spinelli7 ⚽
David6 ⚽
J. Rodriguez6 ⚽
Brenner5 ⚽
Adson5 ⚽
Cards Given
Atletico ParanaenseArthur Dias9 🟨
Luiz Gustavo6 🟨
Gastón Benavídez5 🟨
Bruno Zapelli5 🟨
Diogo Riquelme4 🟨
F. Aguirre4 🟨
Vasco DAThiago Mendes14 🟨
Cauan Barros13 🟨
Andrés Gómez12 🟨
Tchê Tchê6 🟨
Robert Renan6 🟨
Cuiabano5 🟨