Bahia vs Sao Paulo — Serie A
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Bahia and Sao Paulo meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 29 October 2026. Bahia have recorded 24 wins from 49 matches this season (49% win rate), averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 65% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 59%; and clean sheets in 24% of games. Sao Paulo have won 41% of their 54 matches, with 1.19 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 56%, Over 2.5 at 39%, and clean sheets at 28%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.68 for Bahia and 0.90 for Sao Paulo. The models give Bahia a 55% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Sao Paulo win at 20%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47% and BTTS at 47%.
Season Statistics
Bahia—
Sao Paulo7º
Position
9º
1.58
PPG
1.34
42%
Win %
38%
1.42
Goals / game
1.16
1.26
Conceded / game
1.13
65%
BTTS %
56%
24%
Clean sheet %
28%
59%
Over 2.5 %
39%
5.7
Avg corners
6.4
13.4
Avg shots
12.8
4.6
Avg shots on target
3.8
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.1
13.4
Avg fouls
13.2
55.6%
Avg possession
54.1%
Home vs Away
Bahia
Home (16)
—
Sao Paulo
Away (16)
1.69
PPG
0.63
44%
Win %
13%
1.44
Goals / game
0.75
1.06
Conceded / game
1.44
73%
BTTS %
57%
23%
Clean sheet %
14%
69%
Over 2.5 %
39%
5.7
Avg corners
6.4
13.4
Avg shots
12.8
4.6
Avg shots on target
3.8
2.4
Avg yellow cards
2.1
55.6%
Avg possession
54.1%
Goals Scored
| Bahia | Home | Away | Sao Paulo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 86% | 92% | 78% | 80% | 96% | 64% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 51% | 62% | 39% | 33% | 54% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 24% | 31% | 17% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
| Failed To Score | 14% | 8% | 22% | 20% | 4% | 36% |
Goals Conceded
| Bahia | Home | Away | Sao Paulo | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 76% | 77% | 74% | 72% | 58% | 86% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 39% | 35% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 10% | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 14% |
| Clean Sheets | 24% | 23% | 26% | 28% | 42% | 14% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Bahia | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96% | 96% |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 74% |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 13% |
| Over 4.5 | 20% | 6% |
| BTTS | 65% | 56% |
| BTTS & Win | 29% | 17% |
| BTTS & Draw | 22% | 20% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 51% | 37% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 8% | 2% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Bahia | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 43% | 35% |
| Draw 1st Half | 35% | 43% |
| Loss 1st Half | 22% | 22% |
| Scored 1st Half | 61% | 44% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 53% | 30% |
| Win 2nd Half | 31% | 35% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 39% | 24% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 31% | 41% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 49% | 52% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 47% | 57% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 84% | 65% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 49% | 19% |
Recent Venue Form
Bahia (H)L
Flamengo0–3
Flamengo0–3W
Mirassol1–0
Mirassol1–0W
Remo2–1
Remo2–1W
Internacional3–2
Internacional3–2D
Vasco DA Gama0–0
Vasco DA Gama0–0D
Corinthians1–1
Corinthians1–1Sao Paulo (A)DMirassol1–1
Mirassol1–1L
Cruzeiro0–2
Cruzeiro0–2L
Palmeiras0–2
Palmeiras0–2L
Boca Juniors0–1
Boca Juniors0–1L
Chapecoense-sc0–1
Chapecoense-sc0–1D
Bolívar1–1
Bolívar1–1Number of Corners
11.1
Corners / Match
34 games
League Avg
10.4
314 games
11.1
Corners / Match
53 games
| Match Corners | Bahia | Sao Paulo | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 91% | 89% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 88% | 79% | 77% |
| Over 8 | 74% | 72% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 62% | 66% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 44% | 49% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 44% | 42% | 34% |
| Over 12 | 32% | 38% | 27% |
| Over 13 | 29% | 28% | 21% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Bahia | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.7 | 6.4 |
| Corners Against / Match | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 88% | 91% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 79% | 81% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 65% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 79% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 65% | 57% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 56% | 45% |
Head to Head · 27 matches
8
Bahia
30%
7
Draws
26%
12
Sao Paulo
44%
56%
Over 1.5
15/27
41%
Over 2.5
11/27
19%
Over 3.5
5/27
41%
BTTS
11/27
03/05/26Bahia
Sao Paulo
2–2Bahia26/10/25Bahia
Sao Paulo
2–0Bahia31/05/25Sao Paulo
Bahia
2–1Sao Paulo06/11/24Sao Paulo
Bahia
0–3Sao Paulo30/06/24Bahia
Sao Paulo
3–1Bahia29/11/23Sao Paulo
Bahia
0–1Sao Paulo30/07/23Bahia
Sao Paulo
0–0Bahia07/11/21Sao Paulo
Bahia
1–0Sao Paulo10/07/21Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–0Bahia28/11/20Sao Paulo
Bahia
1–3Sao Paulo20/08/20Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–1Bahia10/10/19Sao Paulo
Bahia
0–0Sao Paulo30/05/19Sao Paulo
Bahia
1–0Sao Paulo23/05/19Bahia
Sao Paulo
0–1Bahia19/05/19Bahia
Sao Paulo
0–0Bahia08/09/18Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–0Bahia13/05/18Sao Paulo
Bahia
2–2Sao Paulo03/12/17Bahia
Sao Paulo
1–1Bahia06/08/17Sao Paulo
Bahia
2–1Sao Paulo18/10/14Bahia
Sao Paulo
2–1Bahia| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Bahia- ●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Bahia have scored in 14 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Bahia failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Bahia have won 6 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Bahia have scored in 13 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Bahia have scored 58% of their goals in the first half.
Sao Paulo- ●Sao Paulo have been undefeated in their last 3 matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have won their last 2 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have scored in each of their last 12 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 14 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have scored in 15 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Sao Paulo failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Sao Paulo have lost 10 of their 16 away matches.
- ●68% of Sao Paulo's goals have been scored at home.
- ●77% of Sao Paulo's points have been earned at home.
Season Schedule
BahiaDASantos1–1
Santos1–1LHFlamengo0–3
Flamengo0–3WHMirassol1–0
Mirassol1–0LAPalmeiras0–1
Palmeiras0–1LAAtletico Paranaense1–2
Atletico Paranaense1–2WHRemo2–1
Remo2–1–HSao Paulo29/10
Sao Paulo29/10–ACruzeiro06/11
Cruzeiro06/11–AGremio18/11
Gremio18/11Sao PauloDAMirassol1–1
Mirassol1–1WHVasco DA Gama1–0
Vasco DA Gama1–0WHVitoria2–1
Vitoria2–1LACruzeiro0–2
Cruzeiro0–2LHSantos1–2
Santos1–2WHInternacional1–0
Internacional1–0–ABahia29/10
Bahia29/10–HCorinthians05/11
Corinthians05/11–HFluminense18/11
Fluminense18/11Top Scorers
BahiaWillian Jose9 ⚽
Luciano Juba8 ⚽
Erick8 ⚽
Everaldo7 ⚽
Jean Lucas6 ⚽
Luciano4 ⚽
Sao PauloJonathan Calleri16 ⚽
Luciano15 ⚽
Artur4 ⚽
Ferreira4 ⚽
G. Tapia3 ⚽
D. Bobadilla3 ⚽
Cards Given
BahiaErick7 🟨
Jean Lucas7 🟨
Nicolás Acevedo7 🟨
Luciano Juba6 🟨
Ademir6 🟨
Erick Pulga5 🟨
Sao PauloJonathan Calleri11 🟨
Enzo Díaz10 🟨
Luciano10 🟨
Wendell7 🟨
Damián Bobadilla6 🟨
Alan Franco6 🟨