Flamengo vs Atletico-MG — Serie A
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Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro·Brazil·78,838
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Flamengo and Atletico-MG meet in the Serie A 2026 season on 26 October 2026. Flamengo have recorded 35 wins from 61 matches this season (57% win rate), averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has occurred in 49% of their fixtures; Over 2.5 goals in 56%; and clean sheets in 41% of games. Atletico-MG have won 43% of their 60 matches, with 1.40 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game. Their BTTS rate stands at 53%, Over 2.5 at 45%, and clean sheets at 27%.
Based on our 7-model ensemble (Poisson, Dixon-Coles, Weighted Form, Normalized, Shots, Elo and Combined), the expected goals are 1.71 for Flamengo and 0.95 for Atletico-MG. The models give Flamengo a 57% win probability, with a draw at 25% and an Atletico-MG win at 18%. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 49% and BTTS at 50%.
Season Statistics
Flamengo—
Atletico-MG2º
Position
6º
2.16
PPG
1.61
65%
Win %
45%
1.97
Goals / game
1.35
0.81
Conceded / game
1.13
49%
BTTS %
53%
41%
Clean sheet %
27%
56%
Over 2.5 %
45%
5.6
Avg corners
5.1
15.4
Avg shots
13.3
5.8
Avg shots on target
4.8
1.8
Avg yellow cards
1.7
11.9
Avg fouls
11.6
58.1%
Avg possession
51.1%
Home vs Away
Flamengo
Home (15)
—
Atletico-MG
Away (15)
2.40
PPG
1.00
73%
Win %
27%
1.93
Goals / game
1.00
0.67
Conceded / game
1.20
48%
BTTS %
43%
45%
Clean sheet %
20%
55%
Over 2.5 %
37%
5.6
Avg corners
5.1
15.4
Avg shots
13.3
5.8
Avg shots on target
4.8
1.8
Avg yellow cards
1.7
58.1%
Avg possession
51.1%
Goals Scored
| Flamengo | Home | Away | Atletico-MG | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Scored | 85% | 90% | 80% | 73% | 90% | 57% |
| Over 1.5 Scored | 56% | 68% | 43% | 40% | 53% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 Scored | 25% | 29% | 20% | 17% | 20% | 13% |
| Failed To Score | 15% | 10% | 20% | 27% | 10% | 43% |
Goals Conceded
| Flamengo | Home | Away | Atletico-MG | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Conceded | 59% | 55% | 63% | 73% | 67% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 Conceded | 23% | 19% | 27% | 28% | 17% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 Conceded | 7% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 41% | 45% | 37% | 27% | 33% | 20% |
Over 2.5 & BTTS Predictions
| Flamengo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95% | 93% |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 23% |
| Over 4.5 | 10% | 5% |
| BTTS | 49% | 53% |
| BTTS & Win | 21% | 23% |
| BTTS & Draw | 20% | 25% |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | 34% | 38% |
| BTTS No & Over 2.5 | 21% | 7% |
1st Half / 2nd Half
| Flamengo | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Win 1st Half | 39% | 33% |
| Draw 1st Half | 44% | 42% |
| Loss 1st Half | 16% | 25% |
| Scored 1st Half | 49% | 43% |
| Conceded 1st Half | 30% | 37% |
| Win 2nd Half | 52% | 33% |
| Draw 2nd Half | 25% | 40% |
| Loss 2nd Half | 23% | 27% |
| Scored 2nd Half | 72% | 55% |
| Conceded 2nd Half | 41% | 53% |
| Over 0.5 HT | 64% | 67% |
| Over 1.5 HT | 28% | 25% |
Recent Venue Form
Flamengo (H)D
Estudiantes L.P.0–0
Estudiantes L.P.0–0W
Fluminense1–0
Fluminense1–0W
RB Bragantino2–1
RB Bragantino2–1D
Independiente del Valle1–1
Independiente del Valle1–1W
Corinthians2–1
Corinthians2–1W
Mirassol2–0
Mirassol2–0Atletico-MG (A)L
Atletico Torque0–2
Atletico Torque0–2D
Atletico Paranaense2–2
Atletico Paranaense2–2L
Santos0–2
Santos0–2L
Sao Paulo0–2
Sao Paulo0–2D
Cruzeiro1–1
Cruzeiro1–1D
Internacional0–0
Internacional0–0Number of Corners
9.5
Corners / Match
54 games
League Avg
10.4
314 games
10.2
Corners / Match
48 games
| Match Corners | Flamengo | Atletico-MG | League Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6 | 83% | 85% | 85% |
| Over 7 | 72% | 73% | 77% |
| Over 8 | 59% | 69% | 68% |
| Over 9 | 46% | 58% | 57% |
| Over 10 | 33% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 11 | 22% | 33% | 34% |
| Over 12 | 13% | 27% | 27% |
| Over 13 | 9% | 23% | 21% |
Team Corners
| Team Corners | Flamengo | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| Corners Earned / Match | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| Corners Against / Match | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Over 2.5 Corners For | 81% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 Corners For | 69% | 67% |
| Over 4.5 Corners For | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 Corners Against | 63% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 Corners Against | 56% | 65% |
| Over 4.5 Corners Against | 44% | 56% |
Head to Head · 40 matches
18
Flamengo
45%
8
Draws
20%
14
Atletico-MG
35%
73%
Over 1.5
29/40
50%
Over 2.5
20/40
28%
Over 3.5
11/40
48%
BTTS
19/40
26/04/26Flamengo
Atletico-MG
0–4Flamengo26/11/25Flamengo
Atletico-MG
1–1Flamengo06/08/25Flamengo
Atletico-MG
0–1Flamengo01/08/25Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–1Atletico-MG27/07/25Atletico-MG
Flamengo
1–0Atletico-MG13/11/24Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–0Atletico-MG10/11/24Flamengo
Atletico-MG
0–1Flamengo03/11/24Atletico-MG
Flamengo
3–1Atletico-MG04/07/24Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–4Flamengo29/11/23Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–3Atletico-MG30/07/23Flamengo
Atletico-MG
1–2Flamengo15/10/22Atletico-MG
Flamengo
1–0Atletico-MG14/07/22Atletico-MG
Flamengo
2–0Atletico-MG23/06/22Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–1Flamengo19/06/22Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–0Flamengo20/02/22Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–2Flamengo30/10/21Atletico-MG
Flamengo
1–0Atletico-MG07/07/21Flamengo
Atletico-MG
2–1Flamengo08/11/20Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4–0Flamengo09/08/20Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0–1Atletico-MG| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Team Insights
Flamengo- ●Flamengo have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 2 matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in each of their last 15 matches.
- ●Flamengo have won their last 6 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have been undefeated in their last 3 away matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in each of their last 11 away matches.
- ●Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 8 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in 14 of their 15 home matches.
- ●Flamengo have won 9 of their 16 away matches.
- ●Flamengo have scored in 15 of their 16 away matches.
Atletico-MG- ●Atletico-MG have won their last 2 matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have scored in each of their last 6 matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have won their last 3 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have scored in each of their last 10 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG have scored in 15 of their 16 home matches.
- ●Atletico-MG failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 of their 15 away matches.
- ●64% of Atletico-MG's goals have been scored at home.
Season Schedule
FlamengoWABahia3–0
Bahia3–0WHFluminense1–0
Fluminense1–0DASantos2–2
Santos2–2WHRB Bragantino2–1
RB Bragantino2–1WHCorinthians2–1
Corinthians2–1WARemo1–0
Remo1–0–HAtletico-MG26/10
Atletico-MG26/10–AVasco DA Gama29/10
Vasco DA Gama29/10–HGremio04/11
Gremio04/11Atletico-MGWHCoritiba1–0
Coritiba1–0WHSantos2–1
Santos2–1DAAtletico Paranaense2–2
Atletico Paranaense2–2WHRB Bragantino1–0
RB Bragantino1–0DHChapecoense-sc1–1
Chapecoense-sc1–1WHFluminense3–1
Fluminense3–1–AFlamengo26/10
Flamengo26/10–HCruzeiro29/10
Cruzeiro29/10–ABotafogo05/11
Botafogo05/11Top Scorers
FlamengoPedro26 ⚽
Samuel Lino14 ⚽
Bruno Henrique11 ⚽
Lucas Paqueta9 ⚽
G. de Arrascaeta8 ⚽
J. Carrascal5 ⚽
Atletico-MGReinier6 ⚽
Victor Hugo6 ⚽
Cuello6 ⚽
Bernard6 ⚽
M. Cassierra5 ⚽
R. Lodi5 ⚽
Cards Given
FlamengoErick Pulgar11 🟨
Jorginho9 🟨
Evertton Araujo7 🟨
Bruno Henrique6 🟨
Guillermo Varela5 🟨
Alex Sandro5 🟨
Atletico-MGAlan Franco8 🟨
Lyanco7 🟨
Ruan Tressoldi7 🟨
Ruan6 🟨
Natanael5 🟨
A. Franco5 🟨